Archive for May 2014

West Lane Co. Comm. Contest Latest Contributions Trend

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The Bozievich campaign continues to lead the Lesley campaign in funds raised.

Sources: Data collected from ORESTAR approximately noon May 11, 2014. The date cover December 31,2013, April 20, 2014, April 29, 2014, May 4, 2014, May 11, 2014, and May 18, 2014. Note that the campaigns have some leeway  regarding when to post information. The latest information from the Bozievich campaign is from May 9 and from the Lesley campaign is May 15. The data are tied to the date of collection not to the date of transaction.

Co. Comm. Incumbents and Runoffs: Past Decade

The last two posts looked at how Lane County Board of Commissioner incumbents have done during the past decade.

Given the way things are going this election cycle, it is possible, even likely, that there will be at least one runoff election in November. So, how have incumbents done the past ten years?

The answer is: not well.

Both incumbents running in November lost in November. Stewart beat Hampton in 2004 and Handy beat Green in 2008. This is, of course a small sample, but it provides some perspective. Incumbents forced into a runoff usually have already overcome significant problems just to get there.

Of course, this is a far cry from the Jerry Rust campaigns of the 1980s where they would coast through a multi-candidate primary only to turn on the full blown campaign for the November General. They relied on the university student turnout in Presidential elections.

 

Recent Lane County Commissioner Incumbent Results by Year the Past Decade

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This provides more detail by year. The incumbent losses were not all piled up in one year. There was a consistent one per year except in 2006 when two incumbents chose not to run for re-election.

Overall Lane County Commissioner Incumbent Results the Past Decade

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As we get close to election night, it is useful to have some perspective. This post summarizes the results from all Lane County Commissioner contests during the past ten years (2004-12). In general, challengers have won one out of every three times. Incumbents have lost in three of the five districts: East Lane, North Eugene (twice) and West Lane.

West Lane Co. Comm. Contest Latest Cash-On-Hand Trend

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Surprisingly, the Lesley campaign’s reported cash on hand has increased dramatically the past week.

Sources: Data collected from ORESTAR approximately noon May 11, 2014. The date cover December 31,2013, April 20, 2014, April 29, 2014, May 4, 2014, and May 11, 2014. Note that the campaigns have some leeway  regarding when to post information. The latest information from the Bozievich campaign is from May 2 and from the Lesley campaign is May 8. The data are tied to the date of collection not to the date of transaction.

West Lane Co. Comm. Contest Latest Expenditures Trend

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The Bozievich’s reported campaign expenditures have jumped far ahead of Lesley’s which have stayed about level.

Sources: Data collected from ORESTAR approximately noon May 11, 2014. The date cover December 31,2013, April 20, 2014, April 29, 2014, May 4, 2014, and May 11, 2014. Note that the campaigns have some leeway  regarding when to post information. The latest information from the Bozievich campaign is from May 2 and from the Lesley campaign is May 8. The data are tied to the date of collection not to the date of transaction.

West Lane Co. Comm. Contest Latest Contributions Trend

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Jay Bozievich’s level of total contributions has passed Dawn Lesley’s, though not by much.

Sources: Data collected from ORESTAR approximately noon May 11, 2014. The date cover December 31,2013, April 20, 2014, April 29, 2014, May 4, 2014, and May 11, 2014. Note that the campaigns have some leeway  regarding when to post information. The latest information from the Bozievich campaign is from May 2 and from the Lesley campaign is May 8. The data are tied to the date of collection not to the date of transaction.

West Lane District Co. Comm. Board Job Performance Rating

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The commissioners are disapproved by about a two-to-one ratio, 24 percent approve to 65 percent disapprove, in the West Lane district. The ratings in the West Lane district are almost identical to the ones in the East Lane and Springfield districts.

QUESTION
Overall, how would you rate the job the Lane County Board of Commissioners is doing: excellent, good, fair, poor?

METHODOLOGY
200 live telephone interviews of West Lane County Commission District likely 2014 Primary voters were conducted April 29-May 1, 2014. The margin of error of the survey at the sample median is plus or minus seven percent.

Disclaimer: The Lindholm Company, LLC, is not working for any candidate in this contest.

Springfield District Co. Comm. Board Job Performance Rating

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The commissioners are disapproved by about a two-to-one ratio, 26 percent approve to 66 percent disapprove, in the Springfield district. This is almost identical to the rating given by East Lane primary voters.

QUESTION
Overall, how would you rate the job the Lane County Board of Commissioners is doing: excellent, good, fair, poor?

METHODOLOGY
200 live telephone interviews of Springfield County Commission District likely 2014 Primary voters were conducted April 29-May 1, 2014. The margin of error of the survey at the sample median is plus or minus seven percent.

Disclaimer: The Lindholm Company, LLC, is not working for any candidate in this contest.

East Lane District Co. Comm. Board Job Performance Rating

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The commissioners are disapproved by about a two-to-one ratio, 25 percent approve to 65 percent disapprove, in East Lane. Though this is not very good, it is much better than Congress currently receives.

It is important to remember that this is the rating of the overall board not Commissioner Stewart. It is almost universally true that an individual member of a government body in his or her district receives a significantly better rating than the body as a whole.

This polling was conducted about one week ago.

QUESTION Overall, how would you rate the job the Lane County Board of Commissioners is doing: excellent, good, fair, poor?

METHODOLOGY 200 live telephone interviews of East Lane County Commission District likely 2014 Primary voters were conducted April 29-May 1, 2014. The margin of error of the survey at the sample median is plus or minus seven percent.

Disclaimer: The Lindholm Company, LLC, is not working for any candidate in this contest.