Archive for November 2014

Measure 91 (Marijuana Legalization) Contest Tracking and Election Day Final

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Legalization started a bit ahead and added to its margin over time.

QUESTION: Now, I would like to talk to you about some measures that will be on the November ballot. If the election were held today on Measure 91: Allows possession, manufacture, sale of marijuana by/to adults, subject to state licensing, regulation, taxation, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

SURVEY METHODOLOGY: 400 live telephone interviews were conducted of likely State of Oregon voters on October 13-16 and again on October 27-30 2014. Both landlines and cell phones were included. Likelihood was determined by a model overlaid on the voter file. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus five percent.

SOURCE OF ELECTION RETURNS: Oregon Secretary of State. Final Unofficial Results (Nov. 7, 2014 8pm).

Measure 90 (Top Two Primary) Contest Tracking and Election Day Final

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The measure started relatively close, but dropped significantly over time.

QUESTION: Now, I would like to talk to you about some measures that will be on the November ballot. If the election were held today on Measure 90: Changes general election nomination processes: provides for single primary ballot listing candidates; top two advance, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

SURVEY METHODOLOGY: 400 live telephone interviews were conducted of likely State of Oregon voters on October 13-16 and again on October 27-30 2014. Both landlines and cell phones were included. Likelihood was determined by a model overlaid on the voter file. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus five percent.

SOURCE OF ELECTION RETURNS: Oregon Secretary of State. Final Unofficial Results (Nov. 7, 2014 8pm).

Measure 89 (Oregon ERA) Contest Tracking and Election Day Final

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The measure started well ahead and stayed that way throughout.

QUESTION: Now, I would like to talk to you about some measures that will be on the November ballot. If the election were held today on Measure 89: Amends Constitution: State/political subdivision shall not deny or abridge equality of rights on account of sex, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

SURVEY METHODOLOGY: 400 live telephone interviews were conducted of likely State of Oregon voters on October 13-16 and again on October 27-30 2014. Both landlines and cell phones were included. Likelihood was determined by a model overlaid on the voter file. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus five percent.

SOURCE OF ELECTION RETURNS: Oregon Secretary of State. Final Unofficial Results (Nov. 7, 2014 8pm).

Measure 88 (Driver Card) Contest Tracking and Election Day Final

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This measure was consistently far behind the whole time.

QUESTION: Now, I would like to talk to you about some measures that will be on the November ballot. If the election were held today on Measure 88: Provides Oregon resident “driver card” without requiring proof of legal presence in the United States, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

SURVEY METHODOLOGY: 400 live telephone interviews were conducted of likely State of Oregon voters on October 13-16 and again on October 27-30 2014. Both landlines and cell phones were included. Likelihood was determined by a model overlaid on the voter file. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus five percent.

SOURCE OF ELECTION RETURNS: Oregon Secretary of State. Final Unofficial Results (Nov. 7, 2014 8pm).

Measure 87 (Judicial Employment) Contest Tracking and Election Day Final

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Though it started reasonably close, this good government measure gained significant steam over time.

QUESTION: Now, I would like to talk to you about some measures that will be on the November ballot. If the election were held today on Measure 87: Amends Constitution: Permits employment of state judges by National Guard (military service) and state public universities (teaching), would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

SURVEY METHODOLOGY: 400 live telephone interviews were conducted of likely State of Oregon voters on October 13-16 and again on October 27-30 2014. Both landlines and cell phones were included. Likelihood was determined by a model overlaid on the voter file. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus five percent.

SOURCE OF ELECTION RETURNS: Oregon Secretary of State. Final Unofficial Results (Nov. 7, 2014 8pm).

Measure 86 (College Fund) Contest Tracking and Election Day Final

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The undecided were very high just before ballots went out. They broke mostly, but not completely, for the opposition.

QUESTION: Now, I would like to talk to you about some measures that will be on the November ballot. If the election were held today on Measure 86: Amends Constitution: Requires creation of fund for Oregonians pursuing post-secondary education, authorizes state indebtedness to finance fund, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

SURVEY METHODOLOGY: 400 live telephone interviews were conducted of likely State of Oregon voters on October 13-16 and again on October 27-30 2014. Both landlines and cell phones were included. Likelihood was determined by a model overlaid on the voter file. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus five percent.

SOURCE OF ELECTION RETURNS: Oregon Secretary of State. Final Unofficial Results (Nov. 7, 2014 8pm).

Gubernatorial Contest Tracking and Election Day Final

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Richardson gained strongly in the final days, but he was just too far behind. Kitzhaber maintained a lead throughout.

The first polling was after the Cylvia Hayes scandals broke, but before the ballots went out.

QUESTION: If the election  for Oregon Governor were held today, would you vote for Dennis Richardson, Republican and Independent Parties, Chris Henry, Progressive Party, Aaron Auer, Constitution Party, John Kitzhaber, Democrat and Working Families Parties, Paul Grad, Libertarian Party, and Jason Levin, Pacific Green Party? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way would you lean?

SURVEY METHODOLOGY: 400 live telephone interviews were conducted of likely State of Oregon voters on October 13-16 and again on October 27-30 2014. Both landlines and cell phones were included. Likelihood was determined by a model overlaid on the voter file. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus five percent.

SOURCE OF ELECTION RETURNS: Oregon Secretary of State. Final Unofficial Results (Nov. 7, 2014 8pm).

Senatorial Contest Tracking and Election Day Final

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Merkley maintained a strong lead and won the undecided in the final days.

QUESTION: If the election for United States Senator were held today, would you vote for Mike Montchalin, Libertarian Party, Jeff Merkley, Democrat, Independent, Working Families, and Progressive Parties, Christina Jean Lugo, Pacific Green Party, James E. Leuenberger, Constitution Party, and Monica Wehby, Republican Party?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way would you lean?

SURVEY METHODOLOGY: 400 live telephone interviews were conducted of likely State of Oregon voters on October 13-16 and again on October 27-30 2014. Both landlines and cell phones were included. Likelihood was determined by a model overlaid on the voter file. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus five percent.

SOURCE OF ELECTION RETURNS: Oregon Secretary of State. Final Unofficial Results (Nov. 7, 2014 8pm).

Polling Here Correct on Nine out of Nine Oregon Statewide Races!

Our polling did pretty well this cycle!

There have been some stories about how polling missed badly this election. The Oregonian newspaper examined how pollsters did on the Oregon races:(http://www.oregonlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2014/11/how_did_pollsters_do_predictin.html#incart_maj-story-1).

Readers who’ve followed this blog you would have known the winners for every statewide race in Oregon the weekend before the election. All the final data was posted last Saturday and Sunday.

Adding in our score to the Oregonian‘s list of pollsters, not aggregators, we get:
Lindholm Research, LLC 9-0 – 100%
NYT/CBS 2-0 – 100%
DHM/OPB/Fox-12 6-1 – 86%
ELWAY/Oregonian/KGW 3-1 – 75%
SURVEYUSA/KATU 3-1 – 75%

Now, every pollster got the Senator and Governor right. It was a pretty easy call – no inexperienced candidate, ala Monica Wehby, has won an Oregon senate seat since 1944 (http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=8849) and no conservative, ala Dennis Richardson, has been elected statewide since 1948 (http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=3137).

So let’s get serious and concentrate just on the tougher polling issues. Counting only the measure polling in the ranking the scores are:
Lindholm Research, LLC 7-0 – 100%
DHM/OPB/Fox-12 4-1 – 80%
ELWAY/Oregonian/KGW 1-1 – 50%
SURVEYUSA/KATU 1-1 – 50%
NYT/CBS 0-0 – 0%

Of course, current success does not imply future success. But, it was a good night!

NOTE: These scores are based on contests that AP has called. At this point, all statewide contests have been called.

Oregonians Elect Experienced Senators

So, Monica Wehby lost her bid for the U. S. Senate. From the very beginning, Monica Wehby had one big problem: she had no experience. She’s not the first Republican nominee to suffer this problem: see http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=3137 and http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=8849.

Oregonians really do expect their elected officials to have experience. The last U. S. Senator elected without having held prior office was Wayne Morse in 1944. However, Morse was the University of Oregon’s Law School Dean and had gained statewide visibility a dozen years earlier leading the defeat of the Zorn-McPherson Bill which would have dissolved the University of Oregon. Even Maurine Neuberger, who succeeded her husband Richard Neuberger, had previously been a state Representative.