Archive for May 2016

Matching Up Republican Presidential and Governor Candidates

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The Republican Governor’s race has more clarity than the Senate race. Pierce is closer to Trump and Alley is closer to Kasich.

QUESTION: If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today, would you vote for: Ted Cruz, John R. Kasich, or Donald J. Trump? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

QUESTION: If the Republican Oregon Governor Primary were held today, would you vote for: Bruce Cuff, Bob Niemeyer, Bob Forthan, Bud Pierce, or Allen Alley? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

SAMPLE METHODOLOGY: 400 live telephone interviews of likely 2016 Oregon Republican Primary voters were conducted April 25-27, 2016. Quotas were established for gender, age, and region. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%.

STATISTICAL METHODOLOGY: Correspondence Analysis can be seen as a visual version of a crosstabulation. It represents in distance the similarity between responses from two questions. Responses along the same angle tend to be similar. The closer to the center the closer to the center of the electorate.

Matching Up Republican Presidential and Senate Candidates

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There is not a lot of definition in this contest. Sam Carpenter is closer to Cruz and Trump and Faye Stewart is closer to Kasich, but those are just marginal. None of the Senate candidates has yet gained much support statewide.

QUESTION: If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today, would you vote for: Ted Cruz, John R. Kasich, or Donald J. Trump? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

QUESTION: If the Republican United States Senate Primary were held today, would you vote for: Sam Carpenter, Mark Callahan, Faye Stewart, or Dan Laschober? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

SAMPLE METHODOLOGY: 400 live telephone interviews of likely 2016 Oregon Republican Primary voters were conducted April 25-27, 2016. Quotas were established for gender, age, and region. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%.

STATISTICAL METHODOLOGY: Correspondence Analysis can be seen as a visual version of a crosstabulation. It represents in distance the similarity between responses from two questions. Responses along the same angle tend to be similar. The closer to the center the closer to the center of the electorate.

Current Eugene Mayoral Fundraising

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Here is a fundraising update on the mayoral campaign.

Clark went a long way toward closing the fundraising gap last wee. Counting Clark’s in-kinds and Vinis’ loans then Clark is actually ahead in total contributions. Clark is also closing the gap on cash spent though Vinis still has significantly more cash on hand. As a reminder, Vinis spent a large amount in 2015.

These are based on ORESTAR summary reports as of 10:15 am May 2, 2016.

Matching Up Democratic Presidential and Secretary of State Candidates

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Each of the three Secretary of State candidates has staked out territory. Brad Avakian is running to the left so it’s only natural he’s closest to Sanders in people’s minds. Val Hoyle is the only woman running, so, again, it’s only natural she is closest to Clinton. Richard Devlin is seen as the same type of candidate as Clinton and Hoyle.

QUESTION: If the Democratic Presidential Primary were held today, would you vote for: Hilary Clinton or Bernie Sanders? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

QUESTION: If the Democratic Oregon Secretary of State Primary were held today, would you vote for: Richard Devlin, Brad Avakian, or Val Hoyle? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

SAMPLE METHODOLOGY: 400 live telephone interviews of likely 2016 Oregon Democratic Primary voters were conducted April 25-27, 2016. Quotas were established for gender, age, and region. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%.

STATISTICAL METHODOLOGY: Correspondence Analysis can be seen as a visual version of a crosstabulation. It represents in distance the similarity between responses from two questions. Responses along the same angle tend to be similar. The closer to the center the closer to the center of the electorate.

Willamette Rezoning

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Here is some old polling on the South Willamette rezoning. Note the substantial increase in “Don’t know” during the three months.

QUESTION: Do you support or oppose the South Willamette Rezoning proposed by city staff?
IF SUPPORT/OPPOSE: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene General Election voters were conducted on each of December 2-3, 2015 and February 22-23, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median is 7%. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.