Archive for June 2016

Oregon Republican Governor Primary Trend


As one would expect the tracking shows Alley with a slight lead in April before the campaigns hit full gear and rapidly losing ground to Pierce during May.

QUESTION: If the Republican Oregon Governor Primary were held today, would you vote for: Bruce Cuff, Bob Niemeyer, Bob Forthan, Bud Pierce, or Allen Alley? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: These results are based on three surveys composed of live telephone interviews of likely Oregon Democratic Primary voters. A survey of 200 was conducted April 5-6, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median for this survey is 7%. Two surveys of 400 were conducted April 25-26 and May 9-10, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median for these surveys is 5%.

Recent Eugene Area Net Partisan Swing Margins


This chart goes over the swing margins in some recent contests. The idea is that not every district is created equal. In particular, it’s pretty easy for a Democrat to build up a big margin in Eugene. Similarly, it’s relatively easier for a Republican to win in rural Lane County than in Eugene.

Farr’s margins, despite facing an incumbent in 2012 and an opponent with a long resume in 2016, were the largest of the group.

The standard swing in the state legislature or in other areas of the state is under 10%.

Source: Lane County Elections.

Methodology: Based on vote percentages at election and the corresponding voter registration figures. Equals the net margin ahead of principal progressive opponent plus the Democratic minus Republican registration margin. Green indicates a win and red indicates a loss.

Recent Co. Comm. Vote Percentages


Pat Farr in 2016 received the highest vote for county commissioner in the past five years.

Source: Lane County Elections

Note that Pete Sorenson was unopposed in 2016 so was not included.