Archive for June 2016

Oregon Republican Governor Primary Trend

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As one would expect the tracking shows Alley with a slight lead in April before the campaigns hit full gear and rapidly losing ground to Pierce during May.

QUESTION: If the Republican Oregon Governor Primary were held today, would you vote for: Bruce Cuff, Bob Niemeyer, Bob Forthan, Bud Pierce, or Allen Alley? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: These results are based on three surveys composed of live telephone interviews of likely Oregon Democratic Primary voters. A survey of 200 was conducted April 5-6, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median for this survey is 7%. Two surveys of 400 were conducted April 25-26 and May 9-10, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median for these surveys is 5%.

Recent Eugene Area Net Partisan Swing Margins

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This chart goes over the swing margins in some recent contests. The idea is that not every district is created equal. In particular, it’s pretty easy for a Democrat to build up a big margin in Eugene. Similarly, it’s relatively easier for a Republican to win in rural Lane County than in Eugene.

Farr’s margins, despite facing an incumbent in 2012 and an opponent with a long resume in 2016, were the largest of the group.

The standard swing in the state legislature or in other areas of the state is under 10%.

Source: Lane County Elections.

Methodology: Based on vote percentages at election and the corresponding voter registration figures. Equals the net margin ahead of principal progressive opponent plus the Democratic minus Republican registration margin. Green indicates a win and red indicates a loss.

Recent Co. Comm. Vote Percentages

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Pat Farr in 2016 received the highest vote for county commissioner in the past five years.

Source: Lane County Elections

Note that Pete Sorenson was unopposed in 2016 so was not included.