Archive for May 2017

Oregon 2016 Measure 95 Vote Trend

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Measure 95 remained solidly ahead throughout the campaign.

QUESTION: Now, I would like to talk to you about some measures that will be on the November ballot.
If the election were held today on Measure 95 Amends Constitution: Allows investments in equities by public universities to reduce financial risk and increase investments to benefit students, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: Three surveys of 400 live telephone interviews of likely Oregon 2016 General election voters each were conducted October 3-6, October 17-21, and October 31-November 2, 2016. Likelihood was determined based on modeling and was validated within the questionnaire. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%.

SOURCES: Election data from Oregon Secretary of State.

Downtown Eugene Summary Opinion

As a way of digging deeper into Eugene’s downtown rating, this question focuses on the transient population. The greatest change in the past two years has been the increase among those most negative (Bradshaw respondents).

QUESTION: Now, I am going to read statements from three fictitious people to you about the transient population in downtown Eugene and ask which one comes closest to your view: ROTATE ORDER
[The transient population in downtown Eugene]
Bradshaw:  ___  makes me feel much less safe and less likely to go to businesses there.
Philips: ___  makes me feel somewhat less safe and less likely to go to businesses there.
Andrews: ___  does not make me feel less safe and has no effect on whether I would go to businesses there.
METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely General Election voters were conducted each of June 1-2, 2015, September 21-22, 2015, December 1-2, 2015, September 13-15, 2016, and April 10-11, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median for each is 7%.

Measure 94 Comments

The failure of Measure 94 – allowing judges to serve to older ages – would normally be considered a housekeeping measure. Those have typically passed in Oregon. Measure 94’s failure certainly is partly due to a lack of explanation to the general public that safeguards would still be in place to get rid of senile judges, etc. Another factor could also be that in this period of hyperbolic rhetoric that the basics are being forgotten. This last point leads to the idea that the current Democratic control of government is more about a particular party than a trust in government. Witness virtually the entire Democratic leadership lining up behind Measure 97 last year and its landslide failure.

Oregon 2016 Measure 94 Key Demographics

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Support increased significantly between mid and late October. This implies that people were learning about this measure over time and that they were becoming more favorable.

Income and party were also important determinants.

QUESTION: Now, I would like to talk to you about some measures that will be on the November ballot.
If the election were held today on Measure 94 Amends Constitution: Eliminates mandatory retirement age for state judges, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: Three surveys of 400 live telephone interviews of likely Oregon 2016 General election voters each were conducted October 3-6, October 17-21, and October 31-November 2, 2016. Likelihood was determined based on modeling and was validated within the questionnaire. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%.

These three surveys were then pooled to create The key demographics were determined using CHAID methodology.

Downtown Eugene Business Rating Trend Downward

The “good” percentage has been generally decreasing and the “poor” and “fair” percentages have been generally increasing. The trend is clear: the perception of Downtown Eugene’s business environment is gradually declining.

QUESTION: How would you rate the business environment in downtown Eugene: excellent, good, fair, poor?
METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely General Election voters were conducted each of June 1-2, 2015, September 21-22, 2015, December 1-2, 2015, September 13-15, 2016, and April 10-11, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median for each is 7%.

Oregon 2016 Measure 94 Vote Trend

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Measure 94 trailed throughout the election. One would normally expect this measure to do well considering Oregon’s tradition of supporting good government housekeeping measures.

QUESTION: Now, I would like to talk to you about some measures that will be on the November ballot.
If the election were held today on Measure 94 Amends Constitution: Eliminates mandatory retirement age for state judges, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: Three surveys of 400 live telephone interviews of likely Oregon 2016 General election voters each were conducted October 3-6, October 17-21, and October 31-November 2, 2016. Likelihood was determined based on modeling and was validated within the questionnaire. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%.

SOURCES: Election data from Oregon Secretary of State.

Downtown Eugene Crime is a Big Problem

Crime has become a dominant problem. The increase in “poor” ratings parallels a decrease in “Don’t Know” ratings which implies that the drop is partly due to the word getting out.

QUESTION: How would you rate the business environment in downtown Eugene: excellent, good, fair, poor?
METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely General Election voters were conducted each of June 1-2, 2015, September 21-22, 2015, December 1-2, 2015, September 13-15, 2016, and April 10-11, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median for each is 7%.