Archive for February 2018

Downtown Eugene Crime Rating by Geography

 On the issue of crime downtown, there is much less of a geographic gap than with either visiting frequency or overall rating.
QUESTION: How would you rate the crime problem in downtown Eugene: excellent, good, fair, poor?
METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely General Election voters were conducted each of June 1-2, 2015, September 21-22, 2015, September 13-15, 2016, December 2-3, 2015, September 13-15, 2016, April 10-11, 2017, and September 11-12, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median for each individual survey is 7%. Overall the margin of error is 3%.

Downtown Eugene Overall Rating by Geography

Just as south Eugeneans are more likely to visit downtown, they are more likely to approve. However, every single ward, on net, disapproves of the status of downtown.
QUESTION: How would you rate Downtown Eugene: excellent, good, fair, poor?
METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely General Election voters were conducted each of June 1-2, 2015, September 21-22, 2015, September 13-15, 2016, December 2-3, 2015, September 13-15, 2016, April 10-11, 2017, and September 11-12, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median for each individual survey is 7%. Overall the margin of error is 3%.

Downtown Eugene Visit Frequency by Geography

To the surprise of few, persons from South Eugene (Wards 1, 2, and 3) are the most frequent visitors to downtown. What is probably more interesting is the sharp distinction, not between the near-downtown Ward 1 and the rest of South Eugene, but between the entirety of South Eugene and the entirely of the rest of Eugene.
QUESTION: How often do you go to downtown Eugene: daily, weekly, monthly, rarely, never?
METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely General Election voters were conducted each of June 1-2, 2015, September 21-22, 2015, September 13-15, 2016, December 2-3, 2015, September 13-15, 2016, April 10-11, 2017, and September 11-12, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median for each individual survey is 7%. Overall the margin of error is 3%.

Lindholm Research Survey Accuracy Continues

If you’ll allow us to point out the obvious (too those following this blog) … After perfect records in the 2014 and 2016 Oregon General elections, we continue by getting Measure 101 right.

Democratic Motivation Advantage by Presidential Primary Election

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This graphic shows the Democratic turnout bump by recent presidential elections. It provides some indication of how the environment was. This takes a statewide measure to minimize the impact of local turnout bumps.

To no one’s surprise, 2008 was a very good Democratic year. Next comes 2016. The 2004 was what used to be considered a very good Democratic year, until 2008 came around. The 2012 election was actually a lean Republican election and similar to those during the 20th century.

What does this mean about the Eugene races. First of all, Pat Farr increased his vote share from 60% to 65% with a turnout swing against him of 11 points – quite a feat – especially considering his opponent had a first-class resume and was scandal free. Second, though you might think this would explain Mike Clark’s landslide loss for mayor, what really comes across is, despite all the bouncing of the turnout bump size, the progressive candidates for mayor didn’t cross 55% in 2004, 2008, or 2016. Mayor Piercy had no serious opponent in 2012.

Source of data: Oregon Secretary of State Elections Division.

Methodology: The turnout bump equals the difference between the Oregon statewide Democratic and Republican turnout percentages.