Net Partisan Swing 2014 Lane Co. Comm. Contests


There was a clear gap in performance between the three incumbent county commissioners in the recent primary. The net swing adjusts the winning percentage by the partisan registration in the district.

Since Leiken lacked a strong opponent his margin is expected. This is not the largest observed locally. Pat Farr had a 45 point net swing against Rob Handy in 2012.

It is worth pointing out that the 20-point swing in the Stewart context would have won in a countywide contest where he would have needed only a 16-point swing.

Bozievich’s  net swing dropped from 16 percent in November 2010 to 3 percent this past May. This is a huge drop. It appears to echo the poor Bozievich polling reported earlier in this blog.

These swings can be compared with those in other areas:

SOURCE OF DATA: Lane County Elections

METHODOLOGY: The net swing equals the difference between the winner and the second place candidate percentages minus the difference between the Republican and Democratic partisan percentages. This is a standard way to compute differences since both Leiken and Stewart had a single dominant opponent. For example, Bozievich tied Lesley and Democrats had a three percentage registration edge over Republicans.

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