Tree Analysis of Oregon Governor Vote Demographics

ORGEN1410MERGE-CHAID 11-1-141

Party was the primary vote determinant. The date of the poll does not show up as a secondary variable. This implies the votes either did not or, at least, depended less, on new information generated by the campaigns.

QUESTION: If the election  for Oregon Governor were held today, would you vote for Dennis Richardson, Republican and Independent Parties, Chris Henry, Progressive Party, Aaron Auer, Constitution Party, John Kitzhaber, Democrat and Working Families Parties, Paul Grad, Libertarian Party, and Jason Levin, Pacific Green Party?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way would you lean?

METHODOLOGY:

SURVEYS: 400 live telephone interviews were conducted of likely State of Oregon voters on October 13-16 and again on October 27-30 2014. Both landlines and cell phones were included. Likelihood was determined by a model overlaid on the voter file. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus five percent.

TREE ANALYSIS: Standard CHAID was applied to a pooled data set constructed from the above two surveys.The dependent variable in each case is the specific ballot choice. Independent variables were the same in all analyses. These include: Poll Date, Gender, Age, Party, Congressional District, Vote Frequency, Homeownership, Union Membership, Marital Status, Religious Importance, Religious Attendance, Education, and Income.

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