Tree Analysis of Measure 86 (College Fund) Vote Demographics


Party was the primary vote determinant. The date of the poll shows up as a secondary variable. This implies some voters depended on new information generated by the campaigns. Their take on this new information was likely dependent on their political perspective.

QUESTION: Now, I would like to talk to you about some measures that will be on the November ballot. If the election were held today on Measure 86: Amends Constitution: Requires creation of fund for Oregonians pursuing post-secondary education, authorizes state indebtedness to finance fund, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?


SURVEYS: 400 live telephone interviews were conducted of likely State of Oregon voters on October 13-16 and again on October 27-30 2014. Both landlines and cell phones were included. Likelihood was determined by a model overlaid on the voter file. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus five percent.

TREE ANALYSIS: Standard CHAID was applied to a pooled data set constructed from the above two surveys.The dependent variable in each case is the specific ballot choice. Independent variables were the same in all analyses. These include: Poll Date, Gender, Age, Party, Congressional District, Vote Frequency, Homeownership, Union Membership, Marital Status, Religious Importance, Religious Attendance, Education, and Income.

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