Tree Analysis of Measure 87 (Judicial Employment) Vote Demographics


The date of the poll, trend, was the primary vote determinant. The party shows up as a secondary variable. This implies new information was the dominant decision variable.

Party impacted the poll nearer the election, but not the early one. This implies that the information amplified voter predispositions.

QUESTION: Now, I would like to talk to you about some measures that will be on the November ballot. If the election were held today on Measure 87: Amends Constitution: Permits employment of state judges by National Guard (military service) and state public universities (teaching), would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?


SURVEYS: 400 live telephone interviews were conducted of likely State of Oregon voters on October 13-16 and again on October 27-30 2014. Both landlines and cell phones were included. Likelihood was determined by a model overlaid on the voter file. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus five percent.

TREE ANALYSIS: Standard CHAID was applied to a pooled data set constructed from the above two surveys.The dependent variable in each case is the specific ballot choice. Independent variables were the same in all analyses. These include: Poll Date, Gender, Age, Party, Congressional District, Vote Frequency, Homeownership, Union Membership, Marital Status, Religious Importance, Religious Attendance, Education, and Income.

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