Eugene Mayoral Election Polling Trend


Okay, now that we know the magnitude of Clark’s landslide loss, we need to examine how his level of support evolved during the campaign itself.

Mike Clark started with a solid lead based on his name ID advantage. As one would expect, Lucy Vinis closed the gap. Vinis broke through in early mid April and maintained a solid lead throughout. Clark’s ad blitz at the end of the campaign was not enough to gain, it might even have caused him to lose ground. Vinis’ break through appears to coincide with the first time both candidates’ messages were presented.

POLLING QUESTION: If the Eugene mayoral election were held today, would you vote for: Mike Clark, Bob Cassidy, Stefan Strek, Lucy Vinis, or Scott Landfield [ROTATE NAMES]? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way would you lean?
NOTE: Landfield not included on Feb. 8-9 survey because he had not yet announced his candidacy.

POLLING METHODOLOGY: Data for surveys: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely 2016 Primary voters were conducted on each of February 8-9, April 4-5, April 18-19, and May 2-3, 2016. The margin of error for each survey was plus or minus 7%.

ELECTION DATA: Lane County Elections.

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