Eugene Mayoral Race Predictive Tracking Results


This graphic takes the polling data and models the likely vote percentage for the two candidates. It’s typical in local races for voters to be unfamiliar with the candidates until late in the process. This method adjusts for that lack of knowledge and creates a prediction. In practice, the method is better at predicting the front runner percentage than all the others.

First, the last poll, two weeks before the election, had Vinis winning 54% and she got 53%. That implies Vinis had the race sewed up relatively early.

Next, as noted in the last post, Vinis gained in early to mid April. From that point on her lead was solid.

Finally, Clark’s paid media push at the end appears to have had no significant impact.

POLLING QUESTION: If the Eugene mayoral election were held today, would you vote for: Mike Clark, Bob Cassidy, Stefan Strek, Lucy Vinis, or Scott Landfield [ROTATE NAMES]? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way would you lean?
NOTE: Landfield not included on Feb. 8-9 survey because he had not yet announced his candidacy.

POLLING METHODOLOGY: Data for surveys: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely 2016 Primary voters were conducted on each of February 8-9, April 4-5, April 18-19, and May 2-3, 2016. The margin of error for each survey was plus or minus 7%.

ELECTION DATA: Lane County Elections.

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