Democratic Motivation Advantage by Presidential Primary Election

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This graphic shows the Democratic turnout bump by recent presidential elections. It provides some indication of how the environment was. This takes a statewide measure to minimize the impact of local turnout bumps.

To no one’s surprise, 2008 was a very good Democratic year. Next comes 2016. The 2004 was what used to be considered a very good Democratic year, until 2008 came around. The 2012 election was actually a lean Republican election and similar to those during the 20th century.

What does this mean about the Eugene races. First of all, Pat Farr increased his vote share from 60% to 65% with a turnout swing against him of 11 points – quite a feat – especially considering his opponent had a first-class resume and was scandal free. Second, though you might think this would explain Mike Clark’s landslide loss for mayor, what really comes across is, despite all the bouncing of the turnout bump size, the progressive candidates for mayor didn’t cross 55% in 2004, 2008, or 2016. Mayor Piercy had no serious opponent in 2012.

Source of data: Oregon Secretary of State Elections Division.

Methodology: The turnout bump equals the difference between the Oregon statewide Democratic and Republican turnout percentages.

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