Matching Up Oregon Presidential and Gubernatorial Candidates


The graphic shows the importance of partisan labels. Clinton and Brown are practically the same to voters. Similarly, Trump and Pierce are practically the same. However, Johnson has successfully expanded his support beyond the standard Libertarian base – not how far away from the center Foster, the Libertarian gubernatorial nominee, is.

If the election  for President and Vice President were held today, would you vote for Donald J Trump and Mike Pence, Republican, or Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine, Democrat, or Jill Stein and Ajamu Baraka , Pacific Green, Progressive, or Gary Johnson and William Weld, Libertarian?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

If the election for Governor were held today, would you vote for James Foster, Libertarian, or Kate Brown, Democrat, Working Families, or Cliff Thomason, Independent, or Aaron Donald Auer, Constitution, or Bud Pierce, Republican?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

SAMPLING METHODOLOGY: 400 live telephone interviews of likely Oregon 2016 General election voters were conducted October 3-6, 2016. Likelihood was determined based on modeling and was validated within the questionnaire. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%.

STATISTICAL METHODOLOGY: Correspondence Analysis can be seen as a visual version of a crosstabulation. It represents in distance the similarity between responses from two questions. Responses along the same angle tend to be similar. The closer to the center of the graphic the closer to the median of the electorate.

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