2016 Primary Vote Switching in North Eugene

Often Eugene elections are seen as contests between Pro-Business and Progressive candidates. This implies the two sides can be analyzed as if they were two political parties.

Estimates were independently prepared based on polling and precinct data. Both approaches indicate that 30 percent of Lucy Vinis’ (Progressive) vote in the North Eugene County Commissioner District had just voted for Pat Farr (Pro-Business).

This direction of vote switching is even more dramatic when one considers that the North Eugene district is more pro-business than the city as a whole. Mike Clark should have been running to the left, not right, of Pat Farr.

The level of vote switching observed here provides at least a partial explanation of the Vinis landslide.

SOURCES OF DATA: Lane County Elections for precinct returns; Lindholm Research for Farr campaign tracking polls.

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