Springfield County Commissioner May 2018 Primary Tracking

The Springfield contest was very different than the West Lane contest. Sid Leiken started in a very safe position: in the mid 50s. Then, between the ballots going out and a week before the election his support collapsed. He dropped 10%, down to the mid 40s. Not only that, but the Leiken campaign kept collapsing during the final week. Normally, Leiken would be expected to get about a third of the remaining 21% undecided. He only won a tenth!
Leiken’s 2014 race was more normal (see: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=10690).
In the last post we saw that Bozievich won West Lane due to the campaign. In this post we see that Leiken lost Springfield due to the campaign.
QUESTION: If the election were held today for Lane County Commissioner, would you vote for: Joe Berney or Sid Leiken? [IF DON’T KNOW]: Which way do you lean?
METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of likely Springfield County Commission District 2018 Primary voters were conducted each of March 12-13, April 23-24, and May 7-9, 2018. The margin of error for each survey at the sample median is plus or minus 7%.

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