Pro-Tax and Anti-Tax Baseline Coalitions Analysis

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Measures 66 and 67 are probably better seen as a package deal. The legislature passed them as two parts of the same plan and opponents circulated petitions against both of them together.

 The “combined question” is the combination of responses to the Measure 66 and Measure 67 questions. There are three categories: “Yes to both,” “No to both,” and all other combinations, which I will term “swing.”

There are three key segments among baseline tax supporters and opponents. These are the same segments as among voters on Measure 66:
1.Republicans and Other Registrants who oppose the tax by nearly two to one (Yes 20% to No 40%).
2.Democrats without college education, who slightly oppose the tax (Yes 26% to No 16%). This demographic segment reminds one of the Clinton Democrats in the 2008 Primary.
3.Democrat with at least some college, who strongly support the tax (Yes 59% to No 10%). This demographic segment reminds one of the Obama Democrats in the 2008 Primary.

The key point is that the percentage of potential swing voters among the “Clinton Democrats” is exceedingly high. They were one of the key swing groups that switched sides and helped vote down the 2007 Tobacco Tax. http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=1597. Only time will tell if they switch sides and provide decisive votes again.

Measure 66 Ballot Question Wording:
If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Measure 66: Raises tax on household income at and above $250,000 (and $125,000 for individual filers). Reduces income taxes on unemployment benefits in 2009. Provides funds currently budgeted for education, health care, public safety, other services.
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

Measure 67 Ballot Question Wording:
If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Measure 67: Raises $10 Corporate Minimum Tax, Business Minimum Tax, Corporate Profits Tax. Provides funds currently budgeted for education, health care, public safety, other services.
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

Survey Methodology:
400 live telephone interviews of likely January Oregon Special election voters were conducted November 30 through December 2, 2009. The margin of error at the sample median is 5 percent (with 95 percent confidence).

CHAID (Chi-squared Automatic Interaction Detection) was used to construct the graphic.

This survey was conducted as part of a long-term project studying Oregon politics and not for any political committee. As of the time this survey was conducted, Lindholm Research was not working for either the Yes or No sides.

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