An Early Look at Pennsylvania Redistricting (2008 Census Estimates)

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This map provides a preliminary look, based on 2008 data, of how state legislative seats will be shifted due to the 2011 redistricting. The more red the county the greater (hotter) the percentage increase or the more blue the smaller (cooler) the percentage increase in estimated population between the 2000 Census and the July 1, 2008 population estimate. Please keep in mind, first, that the map presents are only relative changes and, second, that geographic size does not always correlate to population size.

The counties expected to gain the most representation in the state legislature are (in house seats):
Chester  85%
York  61%
Lancaster 41%
Berks  41%
Monroe  40%
Northampton 39%
Lehigh  39%
Montgomery 29%
Bucks  26%
Cumberland 21%
Pike  21%
Franklin 20%

The counties expected to lose the most representation in the state legislature are (in house seats):
Philadelphia -148%
Allegheny -137%

The senate’s gains and losses would be proportionate, only smaller.

Pennsylvania is expected to lose one congressional district.
Despite the loss statewide, there would be some counties that would actually gain congressional representation.
The counties with the greatest gain would be:
Chester 4%
Monroe 2%
York 2%

The counties with the greatest loss would be:
Philadelphia -25%
Allegheny -23%
Essentially, the big cities would lose the most representation.

Please remember that redistricting can be a quirky process and that these estimates are population weights only, not measurements of actual political power after the redistricting process. Future posts are planned that will provide updated information and analysis as the 2011 reapportionment approaches.

Source of data: U. S. Census
Estimates of congressional seat gains and losses: Polidata, 12/23/09 press release.

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