Measure 66 and Measure 67 Top Line Trend: Update

 Survey: Measures 66 and 67 Gain But Election Outcome Up for Grabs
 
In polling conducted Monday through Wednesday of this week measures 66 and 67 have gained from early December. Measure 66 leads 45% Yes to 34% No, up from 40% Yes to 36% No, and Measure 67 leads 51% Yes to 34% No, up from 46% Yes to 33% No.

The gains for the yes side are probably due, in part, to the proponents’ money advantage.

image002

 Measure 66
Yes: 45% (1/4-6) up from 40% (11/30-12/2)
Don’t know: 21% (1/4-6) from 25% (11/30-12/2)
No: 34% (1/4-6) from 36% (11/30-12/2)

image004

Measure 67
Yes: 51% (1/4-6) up from 46% (11/30-12/2)
Don’t know: 15% (1/4-6) down from 21% (11/30-12/2)
No: 34% (1/4-6) from 33% (11/30-12/2)
 
The electorate is only starting the focus on the election. The undecided percentages are still relatively high at 21% for Measure 66 and 15% for Measure 67.

Turnout is a factor. The model used above assumes a relatively high turnout, on the order of the November 2007 Special Election. Measures 66 and 67 have gained among the most motivated voters, but still would do less well in a low-turnout election. Looking at only the most highly motivated voters, opposition to both 66 and 67 increases, but both measures remain ahead. Measure 66 would lead by 47% Yes to 38% No and Measure 67 would lead by 50% Yes to 40% No.

METHODOLOGY
Measure 66 Ballot Question Wording:
If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Measure 66: Raises tax on household income at and above $250,000 (and $125,000 for individual filers). Reduces income taxes on unemployment benefits in 2009. Provides funds currently budgeted for education, health care, public safety, other services.
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

Measure 67 Ballot Question Wording:
If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Measure 67: Raises $10 Corporate Minimum Tax, Business Minimum Tax, Corporate Profits Tax. Provides funds currently budgeted for education, health care, public safety, other services.
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

Both surveys consisted of 400 live telephone interviews of likely January Oregon Special election voters. The first survey was conducted November 30 through December 2, 2009. The second survey was conducted January 4 through 6, 2010. The margin of error for both surveys at the sample median is 5 percent (with 95 percent confidence).

This survey was conducted as part of a long-term project studying Oregon politics and not for any political committee. As of the time this survey was conducted, Lindholm Research is not working for either the Yes or No sides.

Comments are closed.