This Week’s Measure 66 and 67 Polling and Trend

This Week’s Polling Shows Voters Leaning Yes.

Polling conducted Monday, January 18 through Wednesday, January 20 shows Measure 66 leading 50% Yes to 39% No and Measure 67 leading 51% Yes to 40% No.

These results agree with other recent public polling.

Both measures are still too close to call. Late deciding voters tend to vote no on broad-based tax measures. For example, the polling for January 2003’s Measure 28, a proposed temporary income tax increase, conducted by the University of Oregon’s Survey Research Laboratory, as published in the Register Guard newspaper (Jan. 20, 2003) reported Measure 28 ahead by 46% to 35% with a margin of error of plus or minus 5%. In this case, the undecided voters all went to the “no” side and the measure lost: Yes: 46% to No: 54%.

image0024

image0043

These two measures have become increasingly synonymous. The share of those voting either yes on both or no on both has increased steadily over time:

image0064

Survey results

Measure 66
Yes: 50% (1/18-20) up from 45% (1/4-6) and 40% (11/30-12/2)
Don’t know: 12% (1/18-20) down sharply from 21% (1/4-6) and 25% (11/30-12/2)
No: 39% (1/18-20) up from 34% (1/4-6) and 36% (11/30-12/2)
 
Measure 67
Yes: 51% (1/18-20) from 51% (1/4-6) and 46% (11/30-12/2)
Don’t know: 10% (1/18-20) down from 15% (1/4-6) and 21% (11/30-12/2)
No: 40% (1/18-20) up from 34% (1/4-6) and 33% (11/30-12/2)

Details about methodology follow:

Measure 66 Ballot Question Wording:
If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Measure 66: Raises tax on household income at and above $250,000 (and $125,000 for individual filers). Reduces income taxes on unemployment benefits in 2009. Provides funds currently budgeted for education, health care, public safety, other services.
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?
 
Measure 67 Ballot Question Wording:
If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Measure 67: Raises $10 Corporate Minimum Tax, Business Minimum Tax, Corporate Profits Tax. Provides funds currently budgeted for education, health care, public safety, other services.
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?
 
Survey Methodology:
400 live telephone interviews of likely January Oregon Special election voters were conducted January 18 through 20, 2010. Identically structured earlier surveys were conducted November 30 through December 2, 2009 and January 4 through 6, 2010. The margin of error at the sample median is 5 percent at the 95 percent confidence level.
 
This survey was conducted as part of a long-term project studying Oregon politics and not for any political committee. Lindholm Research is not working for either the Yes or No sides.

Comments are closed.