OREGON 4TH DISTRICT REP. PRIMARY: BALLOT PREFERENCE KEY SEGMENTS

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Geography is the biggest determinant of support. All candidates are from Lane County. The Eugene TV market includes much of the 4th Congressional District. This explains Rick Dancer’s strength around the district. Sid Leiken is¬†Mayor of Springfield in Lane County and his ¬†family is from the Roseburg area in Douglas County.

Gender is a secondary factor. It is interesting that there is a gender divide between Dancer (favored by women) and Leiken (favored by men) in the southern part of the district (Douglas and Josephine counties).

This graphic was constructed using CHAID (CHi-squared Automatic Interdaction Detection) methodology.

Definitions of regions: Lane Metro (City of Eugene, City of Springfield, and surrounding urbanized area), Lane Rural (Lane County outside of Lane Metro area), Coast (Coos and Curry counties), North (Benton and Linn counties), and South (Douglas and Josephine counties). Note that parts of Benton and Josephine counties are in neighboring congressional districts. Only the 4th District portions were surveyed.

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