Nguyen Recall Election: Vote Propensity Distribution of Voters


This is the first in a series of posts looking back at the Nguyen Recall Election earlier this year.

The percentage of participating non-persistent voters was much higher than one would have expected. The most likely explanation is that one or more strong voter turnout efforts were run.

Regarding a District 7 June Primary, this implies that campaigns should build in a strong turnout operation.

These figures are based on estimates using the sources indicated below.

Sources of data: Santa Clara County Registrar of Voters; Labels and Lists of Bellevue Washington.

Persistence is defined as having voted in three or four of the previous four primary and general elections. It is usually considered a broad definition of primary voters and, under normal circumstances, would tend to overestimate the turnout in a 2010 Primary.

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