2012 Primary Eugene Mayoral Contest Simulation

This post presents some analysis of the polling results presented earlier. The unadjusted results are at: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=7734.

Polls, especially of local races, invariably include many undecided voters. Pollsters can  improve estimates of the actual ballot standing.Pollsters can assign the undecided vote based on rules of thumb. This graphic uses a standard method to assign the undecided to each of the three candidates for Eugene Mayor.

It seems that Prociw made significant gains after the ballots were mailed. He became Piercy’s most important challenger. Not only did he collect the lion’s share of undecided voters, see the earlier post, but the predicted vote shifted towards him as well. Piercy opponents, over time, learned that he was their choice.

QUESTION
If the election for Mayor of Eugene were held today, would you vote for Kitty Piercy, Kevin Prociw, or Jon Walrod (ROTATE NAMES)? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way would you lean?

METHODOLOGY
200 telephone interviews of likely 2012 City of Eugene Primary voters were conducted February 22 through 24, 2012. The margin of error at the sample median is 7 percent.

The election results are the final unofficial numbers from Lane County Elections.

The adjustment assumed that not more than one-third of the undecided voters would vote for the incumbent and that the remaining votes would be divided among the challengers in proportion to their support. In this case, Mayor Piercy was allocated one-third of the undecided, Prociw four-ninths (2/3*8/12) and Walrod two ninths (2/3*4/12).

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