Oregon Ballot Measure 77 Pre-Election Tracking Results Segmentation Analysis

As is common with “housekeeping” measures, the date of the tracking poll is the most important driver of support in Oregon. People learn over time.

If the election were held today on Measure #77 Amends Constitution: Governor may declare “catastrophic disaster” (defined); requires legislative session; authorizes suspending specified constitutional spending restrictions, would you vote yes or no?

This pooled survey analysis is composed of six surveys and a total of 1400 interviews.

The tracking survey series is comprised of five statewide Oregon surveys of 200 live  telephone interviews of likely Oregon General Election voters conducted each of  September 17-18, October 1-2, October 15-16, October 22-23, and October 29-30, 2012. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus seven percent for each survey.

Quotas were established to guarantee a representative sample of likely Oregon General  Election voters.

The segmentation trees were constructed using a standard CHAID analysis.

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