Comparing Lane and Clackamas County Partisan Swings

Many in the Portland area saw the 2012 takeover of the Clackamas County Board of Commissioners as a major victory based on a large swing of voters.

However, as can be seen in this chart, the Clackamas County results pale compared to recent comparable results in Lane County.

This points out how poorly Portland Metro Republicans perform in nonpartisan contests compared to Republicans in Lane County in relative terms.

The partisan swing is a way to measure the relative performance of campaigns. The partisan swing in all these cases assumes that Republicans are generally favorable to these candidates and that Democrats are generally unfavorable. The equation is: Partisan swing = (Winning candidate pct. – Losing/2nd place candidate pct. + Democratic pct. – Republican pct.)

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