Lindholm Company Blog

Four of the five potential Republican Presidential candidates tested had both extremely high name identification and net favorables. Tim Pawlenty, Governor of Minnesota, is virtually unknown. This explains his low ballot support at this stage.  At this point, it’s fair to say Oregon Republican voters are happy with their choices.

The survey consisted of 400 live telephone interviews of likely 2010 Oregon Republican Primary voters completed March 1-3, 2010.The margin of error at the sample median was 5 percent. Likelihood based on a turnout model that includes vote history, gender, age, and region.

This Correspondence Analysis of likely Oregon Republican Primary voter reveals a number of interesting relationships.

1. The economy, terrorism, and health care are the central issues. This implies (see below) that the economy should be the main point of contention among candidates.

2. Romney, being at the center, is the clear frontrunner. He has an advantage over every other candidate with the three central issues: economy, terrorism, and health care.

3.  Gingrich has “cornered” the deficit issue.

4. Huckabee has “cornered” the social issues.

5. Palin is not as distinguished. She is close to the center, like Romney, but also close to those voters who are undecided about a Presidential nominee.

4.

The survey consisted of 400 live telephone interviews of likely 2010 Oregon Republican Primary voters completed March 1-3, 2010. The margin of error at the sample median was 5 percent. Likelihood based on a turnout model that includes vote history, gender, age, and region.

Correspondence Analysis is a method to graphically represent a crosstabulation.

What is interesting here is the consistent issue priorities across demographic groups. There is nothing among the demographics tested (gender, age, region, income, and education) that distinguished between issues. This implies that a battle on national issues needs to address the entire Oregon Republican Primary electorate on the top issues: economy and deficit.

The survey consisted of 400 live telephone interviews of likely 2010 Oregon Republican Primary voters completed March 1-3, 2010. The margin of error at the sample median was 5 percent. Likelihood based on a turnout model that includes vote history, gender, age, and region.

These key demographic groups show some interesting patterns among Oregon Republican Primary voters.

First, Palin does best among voters with either the most (graduate school) or the least (no high school diploma) levels of education tested. In addition, among those with education somewhere in the middle, Palin does the same with men as she does with women.

Second, women with education not at one of the extremes, high school diplomas, but no graduate school,  are generally more for Huckabee or more likely to be undecided than are men who are more likely to be for Gingrich or for Romney.

The survey consisted of 400 live telephone interviews of likely 2010 Oregon Republican Primary voters completed March 1-3, 2010. The margin of error at the sample median was 5 percent. Likelihood based on a turnout model that includes vote history, gender, age, and region.

The Chris Dudley campaign TV began this week. That means it’s a good time to assess where the Republican Primary contest for Governor started.

The poll below was conducted before that began, but should give a good idea of where the four major Republican candidates for Governor stand at the eve of the campaign.

The survey consisted of 400 live telephone interviews of likely 2010 Oregon Republican Primary voters completed March 1-3, 2010.The margin of error at the sample median was 5 percent. Likelihood based on a turnout model that includes vote history, gender, age, and region.

Lindholm Company, LLC, is not working for any of the Republican campaigns for Oregon Governor.

In general, national issues have remained the same for Oregon Republican Primary voters since September 2009. The economy continues to head the list by a wide margin. The related deficit issue comes in a clear second place. The importance of these  monetary issues parallels the state issue list.

A major news item during the week of the survey was the possible use of the “nuclear option” of reconciliation by the Democratic majority in the U. S. Senate in order to pass the health care bill. This might have skewed upwards the importance of health care on the national scene.

What do feel is the top national issue?
Economy  49%
Deficit  24%
Health care   7%
Social issues  6%
Afghanistan   2%
Education   1%
Other    4%
Don’t know   3%

The survey consisted of 400 live telephone interviews of likely 2010 Oregon Republican Primary voters completed March 1-3, 2010.The margin of error at the sample median was 5 percent. Likelihood based on a turnout model that includes vote history, gender, age, and region.

By way of comparison, a parallel September 14-16, 2009 survey found these results:

What do feel is the top national issue?
Economy  44%
Deficit  24%
Social issues 13%
Afghanistan  4%
Health care  3%
Education  3%
Other   5%
Don’t know  3%

Republicans likely to vote in the 2010 Oregon Primary are very negative on Oregon’s direction.  “Wrong track” outnumbers “right direction” by more than six to one.

An earlier post (http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=2953) noted that these Republicans are unambiguously negative on the overall national direction as well.

The survey consisted of 400 live telephone interviews of likely 2010 Oregon Republican Primary voters completed March 1-3, 2010.The margin of error at the sample median was 5 percent. Likelihood based on a turnout model that includes vote history, gender, age, and region.

Republicans likely to vote in the 2010 Oregon Primary are unambiguously negative on overall state of affairs nationwide. “Wrong track” outnumbers “right direction” by more than six to one.

The survey consisted of 400 live telephone interviews of likely 2010 Oregon Republican Primary voters completed March 1-3, 2010.The margin of error at the sample median was 5 percent. Likelihood based on a turnout model that includes vote history, gender, age, and region.

This correspondence analysis shows several salient features of the Oregon Republican Primary contest.

First, Alley and Dudley are in the same quadrant which implies they are now seen similarly by voters with respect to the major issues.

Second, Lim and Sizemore are in the same quadrant and are further from the origin than are Alley and Dudley. This implies they are seen similarly and they attract a narrower segment of the vote.

Third, economy, education and taxes are all near the center and they are nearer Alley and Dudley. This reinforces the earlier points that Alley and Dudley are seen as the traditional candidates; they are both similar to on another and closer to the three major issues.

The survey consisted of 400 live telephone interviews of likely 2010 Oregon Republican Primary voters completed March 1-3, 2010. The margin of error at the sample median was 5 percent. Likelihood based on a turnout model that includes vote history, gender, age, and region.

Correspondence Analysis is a way of visually representing crosstabulations.

Lindholm Company is not currently working for any of the candidates in this contest.

The Oregon issues remain similar across Oregon Republican Primary voter demographics. As far as Oregon issues are concerned, the most significant demographic division is between men and women. Women are more focused on education and health care than men.

The survey consisted of 400 live telephone interviews of likely 2010 Oregon Republican Primary voters completed March 1-3, 2010. The margin of error at the sample median was 5 percent. Likelihood based on a turnout model that includes vote history, gender, age, and region.