Posts tagged ‘2010 Oregon Republican Primary Survey (Sept. 2009)’

2012 Oregon Republican Primary President/Issues Correspondence Analysis (Sept. 2009)

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It appears that the impact of Republican populism has reached Oregon. Huckabee and Palin, the more populist candidates, are almost directly contrasted with Gingrich and Romney. Gingrich and Palin, being nearer the center, are taking up positions that Romney and Huckabee, respectively, need to occupy in order to gain support.

This kind of division will need to be a source of future research both for candidates in the 2010 Oregon Primary, and in other primaries, and for the 2012 Republican Presidential nomination contest.

Details about the survey and the question asked:

Looking to 2012, if the Republican Primary election for President, if the election were held today, would you vote for:
Mitt Romney  24%
Mike Huckabee  22%
Sarah Palin  19%
Newt Gingrich  14%
Don’t know  22%

What do feel is the top national issue?
Economy  44%
Deficit  24%
Social issues 13%
Afghanistan  4%
Health care  3%
Education  3%
Other   5%
Don’t know  3%

Survey comprised of 400 live telephone interviews of likely 2010 Oregon Republican Primary voters completed September 14-16, 2009. Likelihood based on a turnout model. Margin of error at the sample median is +/- 5%.

Lindholm Company is not currently associated with any of the candidates in the contest.

2010 Oregon Republican Primary Governor/Issues Correspondence Analysis (Sept. 2009)

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There is a significant spread between the three candidates that is probably driven by their geographical constituencies. Atkinson and Lim supporters also are concerned about taxes. Alley supporters also are concerned about the economy and economy.

Details about the survey and the question asked:
If the Republican Primary election for Governor were held today, would you vote for:
Jason Atkinson  15%
Allen Alley  13%
John Lim  4%
Don’t know  68%

What do feel is the top State of Oregon issue?
Economy  43%
Taxes   24%
Education  12%
Health care  9%
Crime   2%
Other   3%
Don’t know  7%

Survey comprised of 400 live telephone interviews of likely 2010 Oregon Republican Primary voters completed September 14-16, 2009. Likelihood based on a turnout model. Margin of error at the sample median is +/- 5%.

Lindholm Company is not currently associated with any of the candidates in the contest.

2012 Oregon Republican Primary National Issues CHAID Analysis (Sept. 2009)

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 Among likely Oregon Republican Primary voters, as far as national issues are concerned, the economy and the deficit dominate all segments, the two issues’ importance just varies by degree among the various segments. The key segmentation variable is the response to the income question. Note the those who “Refused” to answer are a separate group as are lower income respondents (Income under $30,000). Those with incomes $30,000 and higher in 2008, about 2/3s of the sample, are divided between by turnout persistence.

Details about the survey and the question asked:
What do feel is the top national issue?
Economy  44%
Deficit  24%
Social issues 13%
Afghanistan  4%
Health care  3%
Education  3%
Other   5%
Don’t know  3%

Survey comprised of 400 live telephone interviews of likely 2010 Oregon Republican Primary voters completed September 14-16, 2009. Likelihood based on a turnout model. Margin of error at the sample median is +/- 5%.

Lindholm Company is not currently associated with any of the candidates in the contest.

2010 Oregon Republican Primary State Issues CHAID Analysis (Sept. 2009)

 

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Income and then gender are the two most important demographic segmentation variables when it comes to what Oregon Republican Primary Election voters think is the top issue.

Among all Republicans, the economy is the top issue with taxes coming in second. This generally holds true for most of the demographic groups segmented. For those with incomes above $30,000, the economy and then taxes are the top issues. For lower income Republicans, the ranking changes.Men see taxes as the top issue above the economy, but women see economy as the top issue and education slipping in ahead of taxes as the second-place issue.

Details about the survey and the question asked:
What do feel is the top State of Oregon issue?
Economy  43%
Taxes   24%
Education  12%
Health care  9%
Crime   2%
Other   3%
Don’t know  7%

Survey comprised of 400 live telephone interviews of likely 2010 Oregon Republican Primary voters completed September 14-16, 2009. Likelihood based on a turnout model. Margin of error at the sample median is +/- 5%.

Lindholm Company is not currently associated with any of the candidates in the contest.

2012 Oregon Republican Primary President CHAID Analysis (Sept. 2009)

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Unlike the Oregon candidates for Governor, where geography was the top variable dividing respondents, income is the top variable for determining support for candidates for President.

The most interesting contrast is between upper-income Republicans who support Romney and Gingrich relatively more and lower-income Republicans who support Huckabee and Palin relatively more. This result mirrors the split seen in other, national polling.

Details about the survey and the question asked:
Looking to 2012, if the Republican Primary election for President, if the election were held today, would you vote for:
Mitt Romney  24%
Mike Huckabee  22%
Sarah Palin  19%
Newt Gingrich  14%
Don’t know  22%

Survey comprised of 400 live telephone interviews of likely 2010 Oregon Republican Primary voters completed September 14-16, 2009. Likelihood based on a turnout model. Margin of error at the sample median is +/- 5%.

Lindholm Company is not currently associated with any of the candidates in the contest.

2010 Oregon Republican Primary Governor CHAID Analysis (Sept. 2009)

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The top variable determining the level of support is the respondent’s Congressional District.

The support is very geographically driven. Atkinson does relatively better in his home district (District 2: Eastern and Southern Oregon). Alley and Lim do relatively better in District 3 (Portland Area) and District 5 (Southeast Portland Suburbs and Mid-Willamette Valley).

Details about the survey and the question asked:
If the Republican Primary election for Governor were held today, would you vote for:
Jason Atkinson  15%
Allen Alley  13%
John Lim  4%
Don’t know  68%

Survey comprised of 400 live telephone interviews of likely 2010 Oregon Republican Primary voters completed September 14-16, 2009. Likelihood based on a turnout model. Margin of error at the sample median is +/- 5%.

Lindholm Company is not currently associated with any of the candidates in the contest.

2012 Oregon Republican Primary Top National Issue (Sept. 2009)

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As with the top state issue question, the top national issue is the economy. Public finance, in this case the deficit as opposed to taxes, comes second. Again, these parallel the top state issue question results.

Adding up the top two issues, paralleling the state issues, more than 2/3s of Republican Primary voters are focusing on money issues.

Details about the survey and the question asked:
What do feel is the top national issue?
Economy  45%
Deficit  24%
Social issues 13%
Afghanistan  4%
Health care  3%
Education  3%
Other   5%
Don’t know  3%

Please note that rounding might leave the sum of the remainders not equal to 100 percent.

Survey comprised of 400 live telephone interviews of likely 2010 Oregon Republican Primary voters completed September 14-16, 2009. Likelihood based on a turnout model. Margin of error at the sample median is +/- 5%.

2010 Oregon Republican Primary Top Oregon Issue (Sept. 2009)

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Little surprise that the top issue is the economy. And, given we’re interviewing Republicans, again, there’s little surprise the #2 issue is taxes.

Adding up the top two issues, a full 2/3s of Republican Primary voters are focusing on money issues and only a quarter a focusing on government service issues.

Details about the survey and the question asked:
What do feel is the top State of Oregon issue?
Economy  43%
Taxes   24%
Education  12%
Health care  9%
Crime   2%
Other   3%
Don’t know  7%

Survey comprised of 400 live telephone interviews of likely 2010 Oregon Republican Primary voters completed September 14-16, 2009. Likelihood based on a turnout model. Margin of error at the sample median is +/- 5%.

2012 Oregon Republican Primary Presidential Ballot (Sept. 2009)

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The 2012 Oregon Republican Presidential Primary is a close affair. Three of the four candidates, Romney, Huckabee, and Palin, are with with margin of error of the lead. All four candidates are in double digits.

These four candidates were chosen because they were the only ones consitently on national surveys of Republican Presidential preferences.

Details about the survey and the question asked:
Looking to 2012, if the Republican Primary election for President, if the election were held today, would you vote for:
Mitt Romney  24%
Mike Huckabee  22%
Sarah Palin  19%
Newt Gingrich  14%
Don’t know  22%

Survey comprised of telephone interviews of 400 likely 2010 Oregon Republican Primary voters completed September 14-16, 2009. Likelihood based on a turnout model. Margin of error at the sample median is +/- 5%. 

None of the candidates in the contest are currently clients of Lindholm Company or Lindholm Research.

2010 Oregon Republican Primary Gubernatorial Ballot (Sept. 2009)

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Less than a third of likely 2010 Oregon Republican Primarhy voters have a choice, yet, among the three known Republican candidates.

This poll confirms that none of the three Republican nominees currently has any significant statewide name identification. In other words, the nomination is wide open.

Tomorrow, the survey results on the 2012 Presidential nomination.

Details about the survey and the question asked:
If the Republican Primary election for Governor were held today, would you vote for:
Jason Atkinson  15%
Allen Alley  13%
John Lim  4%
Don’t know  68%

Survey comprised of telephone interviews of 400 likely 2010 Oregon Republican Primary voters completed September 14-16, 2009. Likelihood based on a turnout model. Margin of error at the sample median is +/- 5%.

None of the candidates in the contest are currently clients of Lindholm Company or Lindholm Research.