Posts tagged ‘2015 Eugene Library Measure’

Correspondence Between Library Support and Piercy Approval

This post is motivated by the early study of measures under Eugene mayors Kitty Piercy and Jim Torrey. The question is: how correlated was approval of Kitty Piercy with support for the library measure.

The answer is: a lot!

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This graphic shows the correspondence between support for the library measure and approval of Mayor Kitty Piercy in the first tracking poll – just before the ballots were mailed.

There was a very high correspondence. The distance between the “Don’t Knows” in part is due to their small number and the difference between uncertainty about the mayor and indecision about the measure.

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This graphic provides a detailed picture of all question options. Those rating the mayor excellent are also those most in favor of the measure. Similarly, those rating her good or unsure are also yes voters.

Interestingly, those rating her fair are close to the four neighboring responses: somewhat yes, don’t know, lean no, and somewhat no. This implies that these four responses are all, to some extent, similar. Past analyses have indicated that “Lean Yes” responses on measures are those most likely to swing no over time.

Following up on these observations the next is natural: those rating the mayor poor are correlated with those who are strongly no.

QUESTIONS: 1. Eugene will have this measure on the November 3 ballot: Five-Year Library Local Option Levy. Shall Eugene levy $2, 700,000/year for five years, beginning 2016-2017, to increase library hours and expand other library services? This measure may cause property taxes to increase more than three percent? If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no? IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

2. How would you rate the job Eugene Mayor Kitty Piercy is doing: excellent, good, fair, poor?

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene November 2015 Special Election voters were conducted October 14-15, 2015. The margin of error at the sample median for each survey was plus or minus 7%.

The technique of correspondence analysis was applied to the data. It is a form of visual cross tabulation (sometime called internals). The distance between points essentially measures their correlation.

“Approval” includes “Excellent” and “Good” responses. “Disapproval” includes “Fair” and “Poor” responses. Past analyses indicate this is a good measure of relative support.

 

Eugene Library Measure Key Demographics

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Support for and opposition to the library measure divided most strongly on partisan lines. The level of support from Democrats did not match the opposition from Republicans.

QUESTION: Eugene will have this measure on the November 3 ballot: Five-Year Library Local Option Levy. Shall Eugene levy $2, 700,000/year for five years, beginning 2016-2017, to increase library hours and expand other library services? This measure may cause property taxes to increase more than three percent? If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no? IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene November 2015 Special Election voters were conducted October 14-15, 2015 and again on October 26-27, 2015 for a total of 400 interviews. The margin of error at the sample median for each survey was plus or minus 7%.

Eugene Library Measure Expected Yes Pct. Trend

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This post tracks the expected yes percentage. Due to the small “Don’t know” percentage, the two graphs are almost identical.

QUESTION: Eugene will have this measure on the November 3 ballot: Five-Year Library Local Option Levy. Shall Eugene levy $2, 700,000/year for five years, beginning 2016-2017, to increase library hours and expand other library services? This measure may cause property taxes to increase more than three percent? If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no? IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene November 2015 Special Election voters were conducted October 14-15, 2015 and again on October 26-27, 2015 for a total of 400 interviews. The margin of error at the sample median for each survey was plus or minus 7%.

Eugene Library Measure Trend

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Two points stand out about the library polling and final result. First, neither the polling nor the final result was much different from 50%.  Sure there was an up and down, but, there was very little overall movement. The total range was only 5% – less than the poll’s margin of error. The final result was only 2% above the initial poll. Second, this lack of movement is not surprising since the initial poll showed only 6% undecided. That is very low. People generally already had a clear opinion.

All of this implies the campaign was much more about small movements than wide information. The small but strong rise at the end of a campaign, under these conditions, generally indicates a strong and successful final push, either through get-out-the-vote (GOTV) or advocacy (mail, phone, etc.) or a combination. Data in future posts will tend to corroborate this conclusion.

QUESTION: Eugene will have this measure on the November 3 ballot: Five-Year Library Local Option Levy. Shall Eugene levy $2, 700,000/year for five years, beginning 2016-2017, to increase library hours and expand other library services? This measure may cause property taxes to increase more than three percent? If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no? IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene November 2015 Special Election voters were conducted October 14-15, 2015 and again on October 26-27, 2015 for a total of 400 interviews. The margin of error at the sample median for each survey was plus or minus 7%.

Updated Recent Eugene Library Money Measure Results

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The library keeps up its winning streak. Interestingly, the level of support remains steady from 2006.

Sources: Eugene Election History – 1896 to present; Lane County Elections.

See previous post for measures included.

Recent History of Library Money Measure Votes

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Today, Eugeneans votes on the library funding measure are due.

Above are the results for library money measures during the past quarter century. Non-money measures were not included.

Several things are clear: First, when the library loses, it does not lose by much – at least 49% of the vote. Second, after first losing twice, the library has been on a winning streak for most of the period.

Sources: Eugene Election History – 1896 to present; Lane County Elections.

Measures Included:

May 1994: General Obligation Bonds for new library, emergency equipment, facility repair – $56,207,287.
Nov. 1994: General Obligation Bonds for new library – $26,134,808
Nov. 1998: Four-Year Library Operations Serial Levy. $2,190,000 per year
May 2002: Four-Year Library Local Option Tax
May 2006: Four-Year Local Option Property Tax Levy for Library Operations. $2,687,500 per year for 4 years

Non-Money Measures not included:

March 1989: Advisory vote on new library at 8th and Olive Streets (loss)
March 1991: Advising Council whether to locate library at former Sears site (landslide win)