Posts tagged ‘2016 Eugene Mayoral Election’

Democratic Motivation Advantage by Presidential Primary Election

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This graphic shows the Democratic turnout bump by recent presidential elections. It provides some indication of how the environment was. This takes a statewide measure to minimize the impact of local turnout bumps.

To no one’s surprise, 2008 was a very good Democratic year. Next comes 2016. The 2004 was what used to be considered a very good Democratic year, until 2008 came around. The 2012 election was actually a lean Republican election and similar to those during the 20th century.

What does this mean about the Eugene races. First of all, Pat Farr increased his vote share from 60% to 65% with a turnout swing against him of 11 points – quite a feat – especially considering his opponent had a first-class resume and was scandal free. Second, though you might think this would explain Mike Clark’s landslide loss for mayor, what really comes across is, despite all the bouncing of the turnout bump size, the progressive candidates for mayor didn’t cross 55% in 2004, 2008, or 2016. Mayor Piercy had no serious opponent in 2012.

Source of data: Oregon Secretary of State Elections Division.

Methodology: The turnout bump equals the difference between the Oregon statewide Democratic and Republican turnout percentages.

Series Analyzing Lane County Politics

Starting tomorrow and continuing on Thursdays will be a series of posts analyzing the history of Lane County politics and looking ahead to the three commissioner election

s later this year.

2016 Primary Vote Switching in North Eugene

Often Eugene elections are seen as contests between Pro-Business and Progressive candidates. This implies the two sides can be analyzed as if they were two political parties.

Estimates were independently prepared based on polling and precinct data. Both approaches indicate that 30 percent of Lucy Vinis’ (Progressive) vote in the North Eugene County Commissioner District had just voted for Pat Farr (Pro-Business).

This direction of vote switching is even more dramatic when one considers that the North Eugene district is more pro-business than the city as a whole. Mike Clark should have been running to the left, not right, of Pat Farr.

The level of vote switching observed here provides at least a partial explanation of the Vinis landslide.

SOURCES OF DATA: Lane County Elections for precinct returns; Lindholm Research for Farr campaign tracking polls.

Comparison of Clark 2016 Results and Piercy 2012 Opponents’ Results by Ward

Mike Clark received the same percentage citywide in May 2016 as Kitty Piercy’s two challengers did in May 2012. This disguises some significant variations.

First, Clark did much better in North Eugene (wards 4 and 5) and the South Hills (Ward 2). On the other hand, Clark did worse in West Eugene (wards 6, 7 and 8). That performance gap was worst in Ward 6 (Greg Evans’ ward and Pat Farr’s former ward).

Source of data: Lane County Elections

Overall Vote Compared – 2012 and 2016 Eugene Mayoral Elections

This graphic compares the vote percentages for mayor in 2012 and 2016. It assigns the percentages into three categories. The assumptions are 1. that the minor candidates in 2016 were winning votes from the left and 2. that the two Piercy challengers in 2012 were from the right.

This leaves us with the interesting result that Clark received the same percentage as Piercy’s two challengers in 2012 – thus replicating a minimum in support for a pro-business agenda.

Source of data: Lane County Elections

Piercy and Vinis Performance Compared by Eugene Ward

Kitty Piercy in 2012 uniformly outperformed Lucy Vinis in 2016. However, the difference was significantly less in the west Eugene wards (6, 7, and 8).

Source of data: Lane County Elections.

Clark for Mayor Campaign Financial Timeline

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Clark’s fundraising and spending were nearly all concentrated near the May election date.

Source of data: Oregon Secretary of State.

Vinis for Mayor Campaign Financial Timeline

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Vinis’ fundraising and spending were spread out comparatively evenly from July of 2015 through the May Primary.

Source of data: Oregon Secretary of State.

Clark and Vinis Expenditures Timeline

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Vinis’ expenditures started earlier than Clark’s, but he caught up and passed her in April.

Source of data: Oregon Secretary of State.

Clark and Vinis Contributions Timeline

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Vinis’ contributions started earlier than Clark’s, but he caught up and passed her in April.

Source of data: Oregon Secretary of State.