Posts tagged ‘2016 Oregon Politics’

Oregon 2016 Measure 98 Key Demographics

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The primary determinant was party. Gender and time were also important.

QUESTION: Now, I would like to talk to you about some measures that will be on the November ballot.
If the election were held today on Measure 98 Requires state funding for dropout-prevention, career and college readiness programs in Oregon high schools, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: Three surveys of 400 live telephone interviews of likely Oregon 2016 General election voters each were conducted October 3-6, October 17-21, and October 31-November 2, 2016. Likelihood was determined based on modeling and was validated within the questionnaire. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%.

These three surveys were then pooled to create The key demographics were determined using CHAID methodology.

Oregon 2016 Measure 98 Vote Trend

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Measure 98 was solidly ahead throughout the election.

QUESTION: Now, I would like to talk to you about some measures that will be on the November ballot.
If the election were held today on Measure 98 Requires state funding for dropout-prevention, career and college readiness programs in Oregon high schools, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: Three surveys of 400 live telephone interviews of likely Oregon 2016 General election voters each were conducted October 3-6, October 17-21, and October 31-November 2, 2016. Likelihood was determined based on modeling and was validated within the questionnaire. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%.

SOURCES: Election data from Oregon Secretary of State.

Oregon 2016 Measure 96 Key Demographics

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The primary determinant was income. Gender was also important.

QUESTION: Now, I would like to talk to you about some measures that will be on the November ballot.
If the election were held today on Measure 96 Amends Constitution: Dedicates 1.5% of state lottery net proceeds to funding support services for Oregon veterans, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: Three surveys of 400 live telephone interviews of likely Oregon 2016 General election voters each were conducted October 3-6, October 17-21, and October 31-November 2, 2016. Likelihood was determined based on modeling and was validated within the questionnaire. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%.

These three surveys were then pooled to create The key demographics were determined using CHAID methodology.

Oregon 2016 Measure 96 Vote Trend

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Measure 96 was ahead by a wide margin throughout the election.

QUESTION: Now, I would like to talk to you about some measures that will be on the November ballot.
If the election were held today on Measure 96 Amends Constitution: Dedicates 1.5% of state lottery net proceeds to funding support services for Oregon veterans, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: Three surveys of 400 live telephone interviews of likely Oregon 2016 General election voters each were conducted October 3-6, October 17-21, and October 31-November 2, 2016. Likelihood was determined based on modeling and was validated within the questionnaire. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%.

SOURCES: Election data from Oregon Secretary of State.

Oregon 2016 Measure 95 Key Demographics

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The primary determinant on Measure 95 voting was political party. Other important variables include gender, union membership, and date.

QUESTION: Now, I would like to talk to you about some measures that will be on the November ballot.
If the election were held today on Measure 95 Amends Constitution: Allows investments in equities by public universities to reduce financial risk and increase investments to benefit students, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: Three surveys of 400 live telephone interviews of likely Oregon 2016 General election voters each were conducted October 3-6, October 17-21, and October 31-November 2, 2016. Likelihood was determined based on modeling and was validated within the questionnaire. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%.

These three surveys were then pooled to create The key demographics were determined using CHAID methodology.

Oregon 2016 Measure 95 Vote Trend

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Measure 95 remained solidly ahead throughout the campaign.

QUESTION: Now, I would like to talk to you about some measures that will be on the November ballot.
If the election were held today on Measure 95 Amends Constitution: Allows investments in equities by public universities to reduce financial risk and increase investments to benefit students, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: Three surveys of 400 live telephone interviews of likely Oregon 2016 General election voters each were conducted October 3-6, October 17-21, and October 31-November 2, 2016. Likelihood was determined based on modeling and was validated within the questionnaire. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%.

SOURCES: Election data from Oregon Secretary of State.

Measure 94 Comments

The failure of Measure 94 – allowing judges to serve to older ages – would normally be considered a housekeeping measure. Those have typically passed in Oregon. Measure 94’s failure certainly is partly due to a lack of explanation to the general public that safeguards would still be in place to get rid of senile judges, etc. Another factor could also be that in this period of hyperbolic rhetoric that the basics are being forgotten. This last point leads to the idea that the current Democratic control of government is more about a particular party than a trust in government. Witness virtually the entire Democratic leadership lining up behind Measure 97 last year and its landslide failure.

Oregon 2016 Measure 94 Key Demographics

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Support increased significantly between mid and late October. This implies that people were learning about this measure over time and that they were becoming more favorable.

Income and party were also important determinants.

QUESTION: Now, I would like to talk to you about some measures that will be on the November ballot.
If the election were held today on Measure 94 Amends Constitution: Eliminates mandatory retirement age for state judges, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: Three surveys of 400 live telephone interviews of likely Oregon 2016 General election voters each were conducted October 3-6, October 17-21, and October 31-November 2, 2016. Likelihood was determined based on modeling and was validated within the questionnaire. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%.

These three surveys were then pooled to create The key demographics were determined using CHAID methodology.

Oregon 2016 Measure 94 Vote Trend

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Measure 94 trailed throughout the election. One would normally expect this measure to do well considering Oregon’s tradition of supporting good government housekeeping measures.

QUESTION: Now, I would like to talk to you about some measures that will be on the November ballot.
If the election were held today on Measure 94 Amends Constitution: Eliminates mandatory retirement age for state judges, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: Three surveys of 400 live telephone interviews of likely Oregon 2016 General election voters each were conducted October 3-6, October 17-21, and October 31-November 2, 2016. Likelihood was determined based on modeling and was validated within the questionnaire. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%.

SOURCES: Election data from Oregon Secretary of State.

Oregon 2016 Senate Election Key Demographics

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Party was the primary determinant of voting. Wyden did well among all demographic groups. Age, income, and gender also helped determine support.

METHODOLOGY: Three surveys of 400 live telephone interviews of likely Oregon 2016 General election voters each were conducted October 3-6, October 17-21, and October 31-November 2, 2016. Likelihood was determined based on modeling and was validated within the questionnaire. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%.

These three surveys were then pooled to create The key demographics were determined using CHAID methodology.