Posts tagged ‘2016 Oregon Politics’

Measure 94 Comments

The failure of Measure 94 – allowing judges to serve to older ages – would normally be considered a housekeeping measure. Those have typically passed in Oregon. Measure 94’s failure certainly is partly due to a lack of explanation to the general public that safeguards would still be in place to get rid of senile judges, etc. Another factor could also be that in this period of hyperbolic rhetoric that the basics are being forgotten. This last point leads to the idea that the current Democratic control of government is more about a particular party than a trust in government. Witness virtually the entire Democratic leadership lining up behind Measure 97 last year and its landslide failure.

Oregon 2016 Measure 94 Key Demographics

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Support increased significantly between mid and late October. This implies that people were learning about this measure over time and that they were becoming more favorable.

Income and party were also important determinants.

QUESTION: Now, I would like to talk to you about some measures that will be on the November ballot.
If the election were held today on Measure 94 Amends Constitution: Eliminates mandatory retirement age for state judges, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: Three surveys of 400 live telephone interviews of likely Oregon 2016 General election voters each were conducted October 3-6, October 17-21, and October 31-November 2, 2016. Likelihood was determined based on modeling and was validated within the questionnaire. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%.

These three surveys were then pooled to create The key demographics were determined using CHAID methodology.

Oregon 2016 Measure 94 Vote Trend

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Measure 94 trailed throughout the election. One would normally expect this measure to do well considering Oregon’s tradition of supporting good government housekeeping measures.

QUESTION: Now, I would like to talk to you about some measures that will be on the November ballot.
If the election were held today on Measure 94 Amends Constitution: Eliminates mandatory retirement age for state judges, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: Three surveys of 400 live telephone interviews of likely Oregon 2016 General election voters each were conducted October 3-6, October 17-21, and October 31-November 2, 2016. Likelihood was determined based on modeling and was validated within the questionnaire. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%.

SOURCES: Election data from Oregon Secretary of State.

Oregon 2016 Senate Election Key Demographics

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Party was the primary determinant of voting. Wyden did well among all demographic groups. Age, income, and gender also helped determine support.

METHODOLOGY: Three surveys of 400 live telephone interviews of likely Oregon 2016 General election voters each were conducted October 3-6, October 17-21, and October 31-November 2, 2016. Likelihood was determined based on modeling and was validated within the questionnaire. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%.

These three surveys were then pooled to create The key demographics were determined using CHAID methodology.

Oregon 2016 Senate Candidate Name Familiarity Trend

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Ron Wyden maintained a wide name familiarity advantage throughout the campaign.

METHODOLOGY: Three surveys of 400 live telephone interviews of likely Oregon 2016 General election voters each were conducted October 3-6, October 17-21, and October 31-November 2, 2016. Likelihood was determined based on modeling and was validated within the questionnaire. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%.

Oregon 2016 Senate Ballot Trend

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Wyden Maintained a wide lead throughout the campaign.

METHODOLOGY: Three surveys of 400 live telephone interviews of likely Oregon 2016 General election voters each were conducted October 3-6, October 17-21, and October 31-November 2, 2016. Likelihood was determined based on modeling and was validated within the questionnaire. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%.

SOURCES: Election data from Oregon Secretary of State.

Oregon 2016 Attorney General Election Key Demographics

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Party was the primary determinant of voting. Congressional District and gender were also important.

METHODOLOGY: Three surveys of 400 live telephone interviews of likely Oregon 2016 General election voters each were conducted October 3-6, October 17-21, and October 31-November 2, 2016. Likelihood was determined based on modeling and was validated within the questionnaire. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%.

These three surveys were then pooled to create The key demographics were determined using CHAID methodology.

Oregon 2016 Attorney General Candidate Name Familiarity Trend

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Rosenbaum began the name familiarity at a solid level which never increased. Crowe never had a significant name familiarity.

METHODOLOGY: Three surveys of 400 live telephone interviews of likely Oregon 2016 General election voters each were conducted October 3-6, October 17-21, and October 31-November 2, 2016. Likelihood was determined based on modeling and was validated within the questionnaire. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%.

Oregon 2016 Attorney General Ballot Trend

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Rosenbaum maintained a solid lead throughout the campaign. Although never much above 50%, she was never below it.

METHODOLOGY: Three surveys of 400 live telephone interviews of likely Oregon 2016 General election voters each were conducted October 3-6, October 17-21, and October 31-November 2, 2016. Likelihood was determined based on modeling and was validated within the questionnaire. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%.

SOURCES: Election data from Oregon Secretary of State.

State Treasurer Comments

Like Dennis Richardson, Chris Telfer had run once before. However she failed. There were two differences. First, Richardson had run for Governor in 2014 and so he had much higher name familiarity. Second, Telfer ran as an Independent in 2016 and as a Republican in 2010. This would have diminished her residual support from the previous run.