Posts tagged ‘A’s to San Jose’

A’s Move Approval: City of San Jose Key Demographics

image0081

In the expectation of a money issue coming, the demographics align in the expected way. Democrats most approve and Republicans and non-major-party voters least approve.

Given Mayor Reed’s strong support of the A’s moving to San Jose and his natural base of electoral support, it will be interesting to see if the Republicans and independents will be brought along once the plan is more fleshed out.

Question:
Do you approve or disapprove of moving the A’s baseball team to San Jose? IF APPROVE/DISAPPROVE: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY
The surveys each consisted of 200 live telephone interviews of City of San Jose likely June 2010 Primary voters conducted June 16-18, 2009, October 26-28, 2009, and February 15-17, 2010. The margin of error at the sample median was 7 percent for each of the surveys. Quotas and/or weights were established by gender, age, party, region, and vote history as part of the turnout model.

CHAID (Chi-squared Automatic Interaction Detection) was used to construct the graphic using demographic data about the survey respondents.

A’s Move Familiarity: Santa Clara County Trend

image0101

Countywide familiarity with the proposed move of the A’s to San Jose has remained constant over time.

Question:
How familiar are you with moving the A’s baseball team to San Jose? Is that very familiar, somewhat familiar, somewhat unfamiliar or very unfamiliar?

METHODOLOGY
The surveys each consisted of 400 live telephone interviews of Santa Clara County likely June 2010 Primary voters conducted June 16-18, 2009, October 26-28, 2009, and February 15-17, 2010. The margin of error at the sample median is 5 percent. Quotas and/or weights were established by gender, age, party, region, and vote history as part of the turnout model.

A’s Move Approval: Santa Clara County Trend

image016

The countywide approval rate of the A’s move to San Jose has remained roughly constant over time. Unlike in the City of San Jose, there was no statistically significant upward move countywide between October 2009 and February 2010.

Question:
Do you approve or disapprove of moving the A’s baseball team to San Jose? IF APPROVE/DISAPPROVE: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY
The surveys each consisted of 400 live telephone interviews of Santa Clara County likely June 2010 Primary voters conducted June 16-18, 2009, October 26-28, 2009, and February 15-17, 2010. The margin of error at the sample median is 5 percent. Quotas and/or weights were established by gender, age, party, region, and vote history as part of the turnout model.

A’s Move Approval: City of San Jose Trend

image0061

There was a statistically significant increase in approval between October 2009 and February 2010. The approval had stayed constant between June and October 2009.

If one looks for the news that could have generated this movement, the most likely is Mayor Chuck Reed’s increasing involvement in support of the A’s moving to San Jose. Mayor Reed has extremely high favorability ratings. Second, there were the December stories, first, about the creation of a pro-San Jose Giants group, which was immediately labeled as an “astroturf” group and, second, the actions of the San Francisco City Attorney to keep San Jose under of the San Francisco Giants territorial rights. It is possible that these either increased awareness of the issue or backfired by building local support or both.

Question:
Do you approve or disapprove of moving the A’s baseball team to San Jose? IF APPROVE/DISAPPROVE: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY
The surveys each consisted of 200 live telephone interviews of City of San Jose likely June 2010 Primary voters conducted June 16-18, 2009, October 26-28, 2009, and February 15-17, 2010. The margin of error at the sample median was 7 percent for each of the surveys. Quotas and/or weights were established by gender, age, party, region, and vote history as part of the turnout model.

A’s to San Jose Approval Trend: Key Demographics

image014

Minority voters had the highest approval rates. Lower income whites (up to $50,000) had the lowest approval rates.

METHODOLOGY
The data were analyzed using CHAID (Chi-squared Automatic Interaction Detection) methodology.

The data from the two surveys were pooled

The data come from two surveys, each of 400 live telephone interviews of likely 2010 Santa Clara County Primary voters were conducted first on June 16-18, 2009 and then, second, on October 26-28, 2009.

Question:
Do you approve or disapprove of moving the A’s baseball team to San Jose? IF APPROVE/DISAPPROVE: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

The trend top lines are posted here:
http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=1511

A’s San Jose Move Familiarity Trend: Key Demographics

image0025

The familiarity declined between the June and October 2009 surveys.  This decline was general and there was no single segment that drove this decline.

Males from Districts 1, 2, and 5 were the least familiar with the plan.

METHODOLOGY
The data were analyzed using CHAID (Chi-squared Automatic Interaction Detection) methodology.

The data from the two surveys were pooled

The data come from two surveys, each of 400 live telephone interviews of likely 2010 Santa Clara County Primary voters were conducted first on June 16-18, 2009 and then, second, on October 26-28, 2009.

Question:
How familiar are you with moving the A’s baseball team to San Jose? Is that very familiar, somewhat familiar, somewhat unfamiliar or very unfamiliar?

The trend top lines are posted here:
http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=1501

Trend of A’s Plan Approval

image008

Approval of moving the A’s to San Jose has remained roughly constant.

Question:
Do you approve or disapprove of moving the A’s baseball team to San Jose? IF APPROVE/DISAPPROVE: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

Methodology:
The survey consisted of 400 live telephone interviews of likely Santa Clara County June 2010 Primary voters conducted October 26-28, 2009. Quotas and/or weights were established by gender, age, party, region, and vote history as part of the turnout model.
The earlier survey was conducted June 16-18, 2009 using the same methodology.

Trend of A’s Plan Familiarity

image002

This post is the first in a series based on polling done in Santa Clara County in late October. Likely 2010 countywide Primary voter attitudes towards the plans for the A’s move to San Jose, the 49er’s move to Santa Clara, and the BART extension to San Jose were all covered.

 

Unfamiliarity with the A’s plan to move to San Jose has increased between the early summer and early fall surveys.

 

Question:

How familiar are you with moving the A’s baseball team to San Jose? Is that very familiar, somewhat familiar, somewhat unfamiliar or very unfamiliar?

Methodology:

The survey consisted of 400 live telephone interviews of likely Santa Clara County 2010 June Primary voters conducted October 26-28, 2009. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minor 5 percent. Quotas and/or weights were established by gender, age, party, region, and vote history as part of the turnout model.

The earlier survey was conducted June 16-18, 2009 using the same methodology.

Correspondence Analysis of Approval Ratings of 49er’s Plan to Move to Santa Clara and A’s Plan to Move to San Jose

image026

In general, the opinions a person has about the 49er’s plan and about the A’s plan are highly correlated.

There are close correlations between those who strongly disapprove of both plans (see lower right of graphic) and those who have no opinion (see lower left of graphic).

In addition, the approvals are clustered together (upper left quadrant) and the less strong disapprovals are clustered together (upper right quadrant).

Questions used in the Analysis:
Do you approve or disapprove of moving the A’s baseball team to San Jose? IF APPROVE/DISAPPROVE: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?
Do you approve or disapprove of moving the 49er’s football team to Santa Clara? IF APPROVE/DISAPPROVE: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

Methodology:
The survey consisted of 400 telephone interviews of 2010 likely Santa Clara County Primary voters conducted June 16-18, 2009. Quotas and/or weights were established by gender, age, party, region, and vote history as part of the turnout model.
Correspondence Analysis was used to construct the graphic.

A’s Plan to Move to San Jose: Correspondence Analysis of Familiarity and Approve/Disapprove

image020

Just like with the 49er’s, famliiarity for the A’s plans breeds approval. However, since the plan has been out in public for a shorter period of time, the connection is as strong.

Questions used in the Analysis:
How familiar are you with moving the A’s baseball team to San Jose? Is that very familiar, somewhat familiar, somewhat unfamiliar or very unfamiliar?
Do you approve or disapprove of moving the A’s baseball team to San Jose? IF APPROVE/DISAPPROVE: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

Methodology:
The survey consisted of 400 telephone interviews of 2010 likely Santa Clara County Primary voters conducted June 16-18, 2009. Quotas and/or weights were established by gender, age, party, region, and vote history as part of the turnout model.
Correspondence Analysis was used to construct the graphic.