Posts tagged ‘Eugene Government’

Downtown Eugene Summary Opinion

As a way of digging deeper into Eugene’s downtown rating, this question focuses on the transient population. The greatest change in the past two years has been the increase among those most negative (Bradshaw respondents).

QUESTION: Now, I am going to read statements from three fictitious people to you about the transient population in downtown Eugene and ask which one comes closest to your view: ROTATE ORDER
[The transient population in downtown Eugene]
Bradshaw:  ___  makes me feel much less safe and less likely to go to businesses there.
Philips: ___  makes me feel somewhat less safe and less likely to go to businesses there.
Andrews: ___  does not make me feel less safe and has no effect on whether I would go to businesses there.
METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely General Election voters were conducted each of June 1-2, 2015, September 21-22, 2015, December 1-2, 2015, September 13-15, 2016, and April 10-11, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median for each is 7%.

Downtown Eugene Business Rating Trend Downward

The “good” percentage has been generally decreasing and the “poor” and “fair” percentages have been generally increasing. The trend is clear: the perception of Downtown Eugene’s business environment is gradually declining.

QUESTION: How would you rate the business environment in downtown Eugene: excellent, good, fair, poor?
METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely General Election voters were conducted each of June 1-2, 2015, September 21-22, 2015, December 1-2, 2015, September 13-15, 2016, and April 10-11, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median for each is 7%.

Downtown Eugene Crime is a Big Problem

Crime has become a dominant problem. The increase in “poor” ratings parallels a decrease in “Don’t Know” ratings which implies that the drop is partly due to the word getting out.

QUESTION: How would you rate the business environment in downtown Eugene: excellent, good, fair, poor?
METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely General Election voters were conducted each of June 1-2, 2015, September 21-22, 2015, December 1-2, 2015, September 13-15, 2016, and April 10-11, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median for each is 7%.

Downtown Eugene Ratings Getting Lower

Eugenean’s ratings of downtown have fallen precipitously during the past two years. There has been a nearly constant drop in “good” ratings and rise in “poor” ratings.

Also note that this particular time series started two years ago and the trend has been reasonably consistent.

QUESTION: How would you rate the business environment in downtown Eugene: excellent, good, fair, poor?
METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely General Election voters were conducted each of June 1-2, 2015, September 21-22, 2015, December 1-2, 2015, September 13-15, 2016, and April 10-11, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median for each is 7%.

Key Drivers of Mayor Piercy Ratings

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This post tests which issues were most important to respondents in rating Mayor Piercy and then measures their share of impact.

Building trust was the most important. This makes sense because of its role in passing measures and moving community consensus. Traffic and downtown are important as is working with other local governments.

QUESTIONS:
How would you rate the job Eugene Mayor Kitty Piercy is doing: excellent, good, fair, poor?

How would you rate the job Eugene Mayor Kitty Piercy is doing: excellent, good, fair, poor?

Now I would like to list a set of issues facing Eugene and ask you to rate how well Mayor Piercy did on each issue: excellent, good, fair, poor?
RANDOMIZE ORDER
1. Protecting wetlands and other environmentally sensitive areas in the city?
2. Promoting sustainability?
3. Working with other cities and Lane County?
4. Reducing crime?
5. Fixing potholes and street improvements?
6. Bringing new jobs to Eugene?
7. Reducing traffic congestion?
8. Revitalizing downtown Eugene?
9. Increasing affordable housing?
10. Building trust in Eugene’s government?
11. Solving the homeless problem?
12. Building city hall?

METHODOLOGY: 240 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene General election voters were conducted November 29 through December 1, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median is 6%.

Various specifications of a multiple regression model were applied to the data. There are limitations using a five-point scale in this kind of work. However, the results are highly consistent regardless of specification.

Summary of Mayor Piercy Ratings

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This summarizes the issues where Mayor Piercy was tested. Only three of the twelve had positive net approvals and three have net approvals below minus 50%.

QUESTION: Now I would like to list a set of issues facing Eugene and ask you to rate how well Mayor Piercy did on each issue: excellent, good, fair, poor?
RANDOMIZE ORDER
1. Protecting wetlands and other environmentally sensitive areas in the city?
2. Promoting sustainability?
3. Working with other cities and Lane County?
4. Reducing crime?
5. Fixing potholes and street improvements?
6. Bringing new jobs to Eugene?
7. Reducing traffic congestion?
8. Revitalizing downtown Eugene?
9. Increasing affordable housing?
10. Building trust in Eugene’s government?
11. Solving the homeless problem?
12. Building city hall?

METHODOLOGY: 240 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene General election voters were conducted November 29 through December 1, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median is 6%.

Net approval equals the percentage rating Mayor Piercy either excellent or good minus the percentage rating her either fair or poor. This is the standard methodology used in the polling in this blog. As a practical matter, it is a good predictor of voting behavior.

Piercy Rating on Solving the Homeless Problem

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Nearly half of Eugeneans rate Mayor Piercy as poor on homelessness. This was a major issue during the last half of her administration; and particularly since the 2011-12 Occupy Eugene episode.

Lucy Vinis made homelessness a major issue during her successful May 2016 campaign.

QUESTION: Now I would like to list a set of issues facing Eugene and ask you to rate how well Mayor Piercy did on each issue: excellent, good, fair, poor?
Solving the homeless problem?

METHODOLOGY: 240 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene General election voters were conducted November 29 through December 1, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median is 6%.

Piercy Rating on Building City Hall

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Well over half of Eugeneans rate Mayor Piercy as doing a poor job on building the new city hall.

This poll was taken just after the Register Guard’s investigative report on city hall, though polling throughout the year had indicated people saw problems.

QUESTION: Now I would like to list a set of issues facing Eugene and ask you to rate how well Mayor Piercy did on each issue: excellent, good, fair, poor?
Building city hall?

METHODOLOGY: 240 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene General election voters were conducted November 29 through December 1, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median is 6%.

Piercy Rating on Reducing Traffic Congestion

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Though Eugene is famous for its “rush minute,” more than a third rate Mayor Piercy as poor and more than three-quarters rate her as either fair or poor.

QUESTION: Now I would like to list a set of issues facing Eugene and ask you to rate how well Mayor Piercy did on each issue: excellent, good, fair, poor?
Reducing traffic congestion?

METHODOLOGY: 240 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene General election voters were conducted November 29 through December 1, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median is 6%.

Piercy Rating on Increasing Affordable Housing

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Though Mayor Piercy made affordable housing a key issue, she got a decidedly fair rating.

QUESTION: Now I would like to list a set of issues facing Eugene and ask you to rate how well Mayor Piercy did on each issue: excellent, good, fair, poor?
Increasing affordable housing?

METHODOLOGY: 240 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene General election voters were conducted November 29 through December 1, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median is 6%.