Posts tagged ‘Eugene Oregon Polling’

Eugene Measure 20-275 Tracking: Forecast Results

The predicted support for measure 20-275 steadily increased. The final vote was in line with the landslides accorded previous streets measures.
QUESTION: Would you vote yes or no on Measure 20-275: Shall City of Eugene fix streets and fund bicycle and pedestrian projects using $51.2 million in general obligation bonds? If the bonds are approved, they will be payable from taxes on property or property ownership that are not subject to the limits of the Oregon Constitution.
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?
METHODOLOGY: Tracking surveys consisting of 200 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene Special Election voters were conducted each of October 18-19 and October 30-31, 2017. The margin of error for each survey was plus or minus 7%.
SOURCE OF DATA: Lane County Elections: November 7, 2017 election results.

Eugene Measure 20-275 Tracking

Support for the streets measure (20-275) steadily increased over time. The city voters’ pamphlet arrived just after the first survey. In addition, the measure was widely endorsed. Positive information about the measure steadily increased. In addition, there was no opposition campaign.
The measure began as a toss up at 51%. Previous streets measures have passed by wide margins and started well ahead. That the city’s information was critical implies there was an initial lack of trust of the city. The low initial standing of measure 20-274, which was just a housekeeping measure, provides some confirmation of the low standing of city government.
QUESTION: Would you vote yes or no on Measure 20-275: Shall City of Eugene fix streets and fund bicycle and pedestrian projects using $51.2 million in general obligation bonds? If the bonds are approved, they will be payable from taxes on property or property ownership that are not subject to the limits of the Oregon Constitution.
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?
METHODOLOGY: Tracking surveys consisting of 200 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene Special Election voters were conducted each of October 18-19 and October 30-31, 2017. The margin of error for each survey was plus or minus 7%.
SOURCE OF DATA: Lane County Elections: November 7, 2017 election results.

Eugene Measure 20-274 Tracking: Forecast Results

Predicted support for the measure quickly rose to its final level. The arrival of the city voters’ pamphlet and widespread endorsements certainly helped.
QUESTION: Would you vote yes or no on Measure 20-274: Shall the City of Eugene Charter be amended to eliminate an election in the fourth year of a vacated Mayor’s or Councilor’s term?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?
METHODOLOGY: Tracking surveys consisting of 200 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene Special Election voters were conducted each of October 18-19 and October 30-31, 2017. The margin of error for each survey was plus or minus 7%.
SOURCE OF DATA: Lane County Elections: November 7, 2017 election results.

Eugene Measure 20-274 Tracking

Measure 20-274, a city election housekeeping measure passed by a wide margin. Historically, the final percentage is well in line with other housekeeping measure. The initial support level, however, was very low. Voters became informed of the measure over time and this led to its landslide win.
QUESTION: Would you vote yes or no on Measure 20-274: Shall the City of Eugene Charter be amended to eliminate an election in the fourth year of a vacated Mayor’s or Councilor’s term?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?
METHODOLOGY: Tracking surveys consisting of 200 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene Special Election voters were conducted each of October 18-19 and October 30-31, 2017. The margin of error for each survey was plus or minus 7%.
SOURCE OF DATA: Lane County Elections: November 7, 2017 election results.

Eugene November Special Posts

During the next few weeks we’ll be posting analyses of this past November 7 Eugene Special Election.

Key Drivers of Mayor Piercy Ratings

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This post tests which issues were most important to respondents in rating Mayor Piercy and then measures their share of impact.

Building trust was the most important. This makes sense because of its role in passing measures and moving community consensus. Traffic and downtown are important as is working with other local governments.

QUESTIONS:
How would you rate the job Eugene Mayor Kitty Piercy is doing: excellent, good, fair, poor?

How would you rate the job Eugene Mayor Kitty Piercy is doing: excellent, good, fair, poor?

Now I would like to list a set of issues facing Eugene and ask you to rate how well Mayor Piercy did on each issue: excellent, good, fair, poor?
RANDOMIZE ORDER
1. Protecting wetlands and other environmentally sensitive areas in the city?
2. Promoting sustainability?
3. Working with other cities and Lane County?
4. Reducing crime?
5. Fixing potholes and street improvements?
6. Bringing new jobs to Eugene?
7. Reducing traffic congestion?
8. Revitalizing downtown Eugene?
9. Increasing affordable housing?
10. Building trust in Eugene’s government?
11. Solving the homeless problem?
12. Building city hall?

METHODOLOGY: 240 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene General election voters were conducted November 29 through December 1, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median is 6%.

Various specifications of a multiple regression model were applied to the data. There are limitations using a five-point scale in this kind of work. However, the results are highly consistent regardless of specification.

Summary of Mayor Piercy Ratings

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This summarizes the issues where Mayor Piercy was tested. Only three of the twelve had positive net approvals and three have net approvals below minus 50%.

QUESTION: Now I would like to list a set of issues facing Eugene and ask you to rate how well Mayor Piercy did on each issue: excellent, good, fair, poor?
RANDOMIZE ORDER
1. Protecting wetlands and other environmentally sensitive areas in the city?
2. Promoting sustainability?
3. Working with other cities and Lane County?
4. Reducing crime?
5. Fixing potholes and street improvements?
6. Bringing new jobs to Eugene?
7. Reducing traffic congestion?
8. Revitalizing downtown Eugene?
9. Increasing affordable housing?
10. Building trust in Eugene’s government?
11. Solving the homeless problem?
12. Building city hall?

METHODOLOGY: 240 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene General election voters were conducted November 29 through December 1, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median is 6%.

Net approval equals the percentage rating Mayor Piercy either excellent or good minus the percentage rating her either fair or poor. This is the standard methodology used in the polling in this blog. As a practical matter, it is a good predictor of voting behavior.

Piercy Rating on Solving the Homeless Problem

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Nearly half of Eugeneans rate Mayor Piercy as poor on homelessness. This was a major issue during the last half of her administration; and particularly since the 2011-12 Occupy Eugene episode.

Lucy Vinis made homelessness a major issue during her successful May 2016 campaign.

QUESTION: Now I would like to list a set of issues facing Eugene and ask you to rate how well Mayor Piercy did on each issue: excellent, good, fair, poor?
Solving the homeless problem?

METHODOLOGY: 240 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene General election voters were conducted November 29 through December 1, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median is 6%.

Piercy Rating on Building City Hall

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Well over half of Eugeneans rate Mayor Piercy as doing a poor job on building the new city hall.

This poll was taken just after the Register Guard’s investigative report on city hall, though polling throughout the year had indicated people saw problems.

QUESTION: Now I would like to list a set of issues facing Eugene and ask you to rate how well Mayor Piercy did on each issue: excellent, good, fair, poor?
Building city hall?

METHODOLOGY: 240 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene General election voters were conducted November 29 through December 1, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median is 6%.

Piercy Rating on Reducing Traffic Congestion

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Though Eugene is famous for its “rush minute,” more than a third rate Mayor Piercy as poor and more than three-quarters rate her as either fair or poor.

QUESTION: Now I would like to list a set of issues facing Eugene and ask you to rate how well Mayor Piercy did on each issue: excellent, good, fair, poor?
Reducing traffic congestion?

METHODOLOGY: 240 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene General election voters were conducted November 29 through December 1, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median is 6%.