Lindholm Company Blog

This post presents some analysis of the polling results presented earlier. The unadjusted results are at: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=7734.

Polls, especially of local races, invariably include many undecided voters. Pollsters can  improve estimates of the actual ballot standing.Pollsters can assign the undecided vote based on rules of thumb. This graphic uses a standard method to assign the undecided to each of the three candidates for Eugene Mayor.

It seems that Prociw made significant gains after the ballots were mailed. He became Piercy’s most important challenger. Not only did he collect the lion’s share of undecided voters, see the earlier post, but the predicted vote shifted towards him as well. Piercy opponents, over time, learned that he was their choice.

QUESTION
If the election for Mayor of Eugene were held today, would you vote for Kitty Piercy, Kevin Prociw, or Jon Walrod (ROTATE NAMES)? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way would you lean?

METHODOLOGY
200 telephone interviews of likely 2012 City of Eugene Primary voters were conducted February 22 through 24, 2012. The margin of error at the sample median is 7 percent.

The election results are the final unofficial numbers from Lane County Elections.

The adjustment assumed that not more than one-third of the undecided voters would vote for the incumbent and that the remaining votes would be divided among the challengers in proportion to their support. In this case, Mayor Piercy was allocated one-third of the undecided, Prociw four-ninths (2/3*8/12) and Walrod two ninths (2/3*4/12).

This graphic shows the tracking poll results and the final vote. The tracking poll was conducted just before ballots arrived in Eugene homes.

The three Eugene Mayoral candidates were in the same order in the polling as they wound up in the final vote. Piercy moved very little during the final three weeks of the campaign. Prociw gained the most between the April poll and the May primary election.

This can be placed into additional context. Running six opponents instead of two, Jim Torrey received 69 percent of the vote when running for re-election in 2000. Torrey spent $17,484. Piercy had spent nearly $70,000 as of Election Day.

QUESTION
If the election for Mayor of Eugene were held today, would you vote for Kitty Piercy, Kevin Prociw, or Jon Walrod (ROTATE NAMES)? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way would you lean?

METHODOLOGY
200 telephone interviews of likely 2012 City of Eugene Primary voters were conducted February 22 through 24, 2012. The margin of error at the sample median is 7 percent.

The election results are the final unofficial numbers from Lane County Elections.

The Torrey fundraising data come from the Eugene City Recorder and the Piercy fundraising data come from ORESTAR.

The May 15 Primary ballots are being mailed today. We thought it might be a good idea to compare voter attitudes about Springfield Mayor Christine Lundberg and Eugene Mayor Kitty Piercy.

Once again, Springfield voters seem much happier than Eugene voters. Whereas Mayor Piercy supporters roughly equal her opponents, Mayor Lundberg has a better than two-to-one edge.

QUESTIONS
If the election were held today, would you vote to Re-Elect Eugene Mayor Kitty Piercy or vote for someone else?

If the election were held today, would you vote to Keep Springfield Mayor Christine Lundberg or vote for someone else?

METHODOLOGY
200 telephone interviews of likely 2012 City of Springfield Primary voters were conducted March 13 and 14, 2012. The margin of error at the sample median is 7 percent.

200 telephone interviews of likely 2012 City of Eugene Primary voters were conducted February 22 through 24, 2012. The margin of error at the sample median is 7 percent.

Here is the third post in the series. It’s the same story as the previous two. Springfield voters are a lot happier than Eugene voters.

QUESTIONS
How would you rate the job the Eugene City Council is doing: excellent, good, fair, poor?

How would you rate the job the Springfield City Council is doing: excellent, good, fair, poor?

METHODOLOGY
200 telephone interviews of likely 2012 City of Springfield Primary voters were conducted March 13 and 14, 2012. The margin of error at the sample median is 7 percent.

200 telephone interviews of likely 2012 City of Eugene Primary voters were conducted February 22 through 24, 2012. The margin of error at the sample median is 7 percent.

Following common methodology, I have grouped excellent and good together to form the approval and fair and poor together to form the disapproval.

This post compares the mayoral approval ratings among likely primary voters in Eugene and Springfield.

Though it’s tough being an elected official these days, Springfield Mayor Christine Lundberg has much better ratings than Eugene Mayor Kitty Piercy.

QUESTIONS
How would you rate the job Eugene Mayor Kitty Piercy is doing: excellent, good, fair, poor?

How would you rate the job Springfield Mayor Christine Lundberg is doing: excellent, good, fair, poor?

METHODOLOGY
200 telephone interviews of likely 2012 City of Springfield Primary voters were conducted March 13 and 14, 2012. The margin of error at the sample median is 7 percent.

200 telephone interviews of likely 2012 City of Eugene Primary voters were conducted February 22 through 24, 2012. The margin of error at the sample median is 7 percent.

Following common methodology, I have grouped excellent and good together to form the approval and fair and poor together to form the disapproval.

This post is the first in a series that compare likely voter attitudes in the upcoming Eugene and Springfield primaries.

Here are the results from the ubiquitous “Right Direction/Wrong Track” question. It’s very clear that the Springfield voters are a much happier group than the Eugene voters.

QUESTIONS
In general, do you feel Eugene is heading in the right direction or do you think things have gotten off on the wrong track?

In general, do you feel Springfield is heading in the right direction or do you think things have gotten off on the wrong track?

METHODOLOGY
200 telephone interviews of likely 2012 City of Springfield Primary voters were conducted March 13 and 14, 2012. The margin of error at the sample median is 7 percent.

200 telephone interviews of likely 2012 City of Eugene Primary voters were conducted February 22 through 24, 2012. The margin of error at the sample median is 7 percent.

Ward 8 is represented by Chris Pryor. Betty Taylor and Pat Farr have a significant lead in Name ID. Chris Pryor comes third. Ward 8, in this way, is  like wards 3 and 6. The local city councilor has a disproportionately high Name ID.

These numbers are based on the old PRE-2011 REDISTRICTING WARD BOUNDARIES. For reference, here is the old 2001 ward map and here is the new 2011 ward map.

The ward sub sample was prepared as part of a pool of surveys conducted of Eugene likely general election voters from June 2010 through January 2012. There were a total of 1,600 telephone interviews from eight surveys each of 200 telephone interviews citywide. The surveys were conducted June 14-15, 2010, September 29-30, 2010, November 29-30, 2010, January 24-25, 2011, May 25-26, 2011, September 26-27, 2011, December 5-6, 2011 and January 11-12, 2012.

The Ward 8 subsample used in this analysis consists of 182 interviews and has a margin of error of 7 percent.

QUESTION: Now, I am going to read the names of some people. Please tell me whether you have heard of each.

Ward 7 is represented by Andrea Ortiz. Though Ortiz has high Name ID citywide, Pat Farr has the highest Name ID in the ward. Ward 7 is next to Pat Farr’s Ward 6. Ortiz and Betty Taylor come next.

These numbers are based on the old PRE-2011 REDISTRICTING WARD BOUNDARIES. For reference, here is the old 2001 ward map and here is the new 2011 ward map.

The ward sub sample was prepared as part of a pool of surveys conducted of Eugene likely general election voters from June 2010 through January 2012. There were a total of 1,600 telephone interviews from eight surveys each of 200 telephone interviews citywide. The surveys were conducted June 14-15, 2010, September 29-30, 2010, November 29-30, 2010, January 24-25, 2011, May 25-26, 2011, September 26-27, 2011, December 5-6, 2011 and January 11-12, 2012.

The Ward 7 subsample used in this analysis consists of 174 interviews and has a margin of error of 8 percent.

QUESTION: Now, I am going to read the names of some people. Please tell me whether you have heard of each.

Ward 6 is represented by Pat Farr. He has by far the highest Name ID in the ward. In this way, Ward 6 is like Ward 3. Ward 3, the University area, is represented by Alan Zelenka. Both wards really know their own city councilor.

These numbers are based on the old PRE-2011 REDISTRICTING WARD BOUNDARIES. For reference, here is the old 2001 ward map and here is the new 2011 ward map.

The ward sub sample was prepared as part of a pool of surveys conducted of Eugene likely general election voters from June 2010 through January 2012. There were a total of 1,600 telephone interviews from eight surveys each of 200 telephone interviews citywide. The surveys were conducted June 14-15, 2010, September 29-30, 2010, November 29-30, 2010, January 24-25, 2011, May 25-26, 2011, September 26-27, 2011, December 5-6, 2011 and January 11-12, 2012.

The Ward 6 subsample used in this analysis consists of 216 interviews and has a margin of error of 7 percent.

Ward 5 is represented by Mike Clark. Betty Taylor and Pat Farr have the highest Name ID.

These numbers are based on the old PRE-2011 REDISTRICTING WARD BOUNDARIES. For reference, here is the old 2001 ward map and here is the new 2011 ward map.

The ward sub sample was prepared as part of a pool of surveys conducted of Eugene likely general election voters from June 2010 through January 2012. There were a total of 1,600 telephone interviews from eight surveys each of 200 telephone interviews citywide. The surveys were conducted June 14-15, 2010, September 29-30, 2010, November 29-30, 2010, January 24-25, 2011, May 25-26, 2011, September 26-27, 2011, December 5-6, 2011 and January 11-12, 2012.

The Ward 5 subsample used in this analysis consists of 225 interviews and has a margin of error of 7 percent.

QUESTION: Now, I am going to read the names of some people. Please tell me whether you have heard of each.