Posts tagged ‘Eugene Politics’

Lane Board of Commissioners Job Performance

The job performance rating of the Lane Board of Commissioners has steadily risen in Eugene during 2017 and is now at its highest point in years.

QUESTION: How would you rate the job the Lane County Board of Commissioners is doing: excellent, good, fair, poor?

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely General Election voters were conducted each of February 16-18, 2015, June 1-2, 2015, September 21-22, 2015, December 2-3, 2015, February 22-23, 2016, September 13-15, 2016, November 29-December 1, 2016, April 10-11, 2017, and September 11-12, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median for each is 7%.

Relationship Between Voting on Measures 20-274 and 20-275 by Ward

 

This analysis presupposes a linear relationship between the votes for 20-274 and 20-275. What is interesting is that the three southern wards are above the line, indicating disproportionate support for the streets bond measure, and the five northern and western wards are below the line, indicating disproportionate opposition for that same measure.

Once again, voting returns show the gap between the three South Eugene wards, where Mayor Vinis and former Mayor Piercy ran best, and the rest of Eugene.

Source of data: Lane County Elections.

Yes Percentage Eugene Measure 20-275 (Streets Measure) by Ward

Though the streets measure won by a solid margin, it only won seven of eight wards. It actually lost Ward 6 (Bethel-Danebo/Northwest Eugene) by landslide proportions.

Paralleling the charter revision, the highest support came from the three southern wards (1, 2, and 3). Next came the two northern wards (4 and 5). The western wards had the least support (6, 7, and 8).

This pattern parallels other money measures.

Source of data: Lane County Elections.

Vinis Favorables Rating Trend

First, it’s clear that those who know who Eugene Mayor Lucy Vinis is generally like her. She’s had no bad press.

Second, as previous posts have indicated that’s faint praise because so few know her.

QUESTION: Now, I am going to read the names of some people and organizations. Please tell me whether you have heard of each. IF HEARD OF … Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Lucy Vinis IF FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE: Is that strongly or somewhat?

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely General Election voters were conducted September 11-12, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median for each is 7%.

Yes Percentage Eugene Measure 20-274 by Ward

The highest support came from the three southern wards (1, 2, and 3). Next came the two northern wards (4 and 5). The western wards had the least support (6, 7, and 8).

This pattern parallels other measures of the trust in Eugene’s government.

Source of data: Lane County Elections.

Familiarity Trends of Prominent Eugene Leaders

This graph shows the Name ID levels of four prominent Eugene leaders. Notice that Pat Farr and Peter Sorenson compose the upper pair and closely track each other. The lower pair, Mike Clark and Lucy Vinis, also closely track in other. Essentially, Vinis is familiar to Eugeneans as would be a well-known city councilor.

What we should see is the green line rocketing upward in April and being off the chart, literally, in September.

QUESTION: Now, I am going to read the names of some people and organizations. Please tell me whether you have heard of each.
RANDOMIZE ORDER
1. Mike Clark
2. Peter Sorenson
3. Lucy Vinis
4. Pat Farr

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely General Election voters were conducted each of September 13-15, 2016, December 2-3, 2016, April 10-11, 2017, and September 11-12, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median for each is 7%.

N.B. Betty Taylor was omitted for simplicity of analysis. She did not run for mayor last year. Including her, either as an addition or instead of Mike Clark, would only further accentuate how unsuccessful Vinis’ efforts at community outreach have been.

Eugene Mayor Lucy Vinis Familiarity Trend

 

Eugene Mayor Lucy Vinis’ name identification level has remained remarkably constant over the past year. Eugeneans’ familiarity with past mayors (Torrey and Piercy) has risen dramatically during the first year of office. Based on these examples she should be somewhere around the mid 90s not the mid 50s.

Vinis’ “city-council-level-familiarity” as seen in the last post is not just some one off. Her Name ID really hasn’t taken off.

QUESTION: Now, I am going to read the names of some people and organizations. Please tell me whether you have heard of each.

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely General Election voters were conducted September 11-12, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median for each is 7%.

Familiarity Levels of Eugene Elected Officials

Eugene’s city councilors line up in their usual order, generally correlated with years of experience and amount of new coverage.

What is most unusual is that Mayor Lucy Vinis is still in the middle of the pack rather than far ahead of the council.

QUESTION: Now, I am going to read the names of some people and organizations. Please tell me whether you have heard of each.
RANDOMIZE ORDER
1. Emily Semple
2. Betty Taylor
3. Alan Zelenka
4. Jennifer Yeh
5. Mike Clark
6. Greg Evans
7. Claire Syrett
8. Chris Pryor
9. Lucy Vinis
METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely General Election voters were conducted September 11-12, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median for each is 7%.

Thanksgiving Weekend of Eugene Politics

This blog will be posting polling results from September on Eugene politics this weekend starting later this morning.

Eugene Measure 20-275 Tracking: Forecast Results

The predicted support for measure 20-275 steadily increased. The final vote was in line with the landslides accorded previous streets measures.
QUESTION: Would you vote yes or no on Measure 20-275: Shall City of Eugene fix streets and fund bicycle and pedestrian projects using $51.2 million in general obligation bonds? If the bonds are approved, they will be payable from taxes on property or property ownership that are not subject to the limits of the Oregon Constitution.
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?
METHODOLOGY: Tracking surveys consisting of 200 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene Special Election voters were conducted each of October 18-19 and October 30-31, 2017. The margin of error for each survey was plus or minus 7%.
SOURCE OF DATA: Lane County Elections: November 7, 2017 election results.