Posts tagged ‘Eugene Politics’

Eugene Housing & Rental Prices Too High

The best way to look at this question is to compare the “expensive” and the “just about right” percentages. The “expensive” greatly exceeds the “just about right,” by nearly two-to-one.

QUESTION: How would you rate housing and rental prices in Eugene, in general, are they too expensive, too inexpensive, or just about right?
METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely General Election voters were conducted April 10-11, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median is 7%.

Vinis Mayoral Job Approval Rating Is Net Negative

Vinis’ job approval rating is underwater. A net negative rating like this implies she has not benefited from any honeymoon.

It’s is important to distinguish between the types of data. Mayor Vinis is relatively unknown, but those who know her like her. In the office of the mayor, on the other hand, she is underperforming.

QUESTION: How would you rate the job Eugene Mayor Lucy Vinis is doing: excellent, good, fair, poor?
METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely General Election voters were conducted April 10-11, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median is 7%.

Vinis Favorability High – Among Those Who Know Her

Though Lucy Vinis is only known by a little more than half of Eugeneans, she is personally well liked by those who know of her. Her favorability ratio of about four-to-one (40/11) is very good.

QUESTION: Now, I am going to read the names of some people and organizations. Please tell me whether you have heard of each: Lucy Vinis? IF HEARD OF … Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Lucy Vinis? IF FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE: Is that strongly or somewhat?
METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely General Election voters were conducted each of September 13-15, 2016, December 2-3, 2016, and April 10-11, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median for each is 7%.

Major Eugene-Area Leader Name Familiarity Post 2016 Primary Election

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This analysis is particularly interesting because it shows the impact of campaigns. Clark, Farr, and Sorenson ran in the May primary. Their name familiarity increased because of this. However, once the campaigns were done, their name familiarity dropped. They were no longer in the public eye. Piercy was mayor throughout the period and not on the ballot. This explains her consistency. Vinis remained constant because she was preparing to become Mayor in January 2017.

Emily Semple’s name familiarity appears also to have been affected by her campaign lasting until November (see http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=13965).

QUESTION: Now, I am going to read the names of some people and organizations. Please tell me whether you have heard of each. IF HEARD OF … Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of ______ IF FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE: Is that strongly or somewhat?
RANDOMIZE ORDER
1. Kitty Piercy
2. Lucy Vinis
3. Mike Clark
4. Peter Sorenson
5. Pat Farr

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene General election voters were conducted September 13-15, 2016.The margin of error at the sample median for this surveys is 7%. 240 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene General election voters were conducted November 29 through December 1, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median for this survey is 6%.

Eugene Mayoral Name Familiarity Comparable to Council’s

One way of seeing how low Mayor Vinis’ name familiarity is, is to compare her with the city councilors. Two, Betty Taylor and Mike Clark, are higher. Emily Semple is reasonably close. A mayor’s name familiarity should be much higher. Historically, it is generally in the 90s in Eugene.

QUESTION: City of Eugene Office of the Independent Auditor. The auditor would be elected to four-year terms, would operate separately from the city council and manager and would conduct financial, performance and other audits of all city operations and activities.
METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely General Election voters were conducted April 10-11, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median is 7%.
Lucy Vinis
Emily Semple
Betty Taylor
Alan Zelenka
George Poling
Mike Clark
Greg Evans
Claire Syrett
Chris Pryor

N.B. George Poling’s resignation from the council was effective the first day of survey interviewing.

Vinis’s Name Familiarity Stays Level

Despite being mayor-elect for nearly a year, Mayor Lucy Vinis’ name familiarity has barely budged since the campaign ended.

QUESTION: Now, I am going to read the names of some people and organizations. Please tell me whether you have heard of each: Lucy Vinis?
METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely General Election voters were conducted each of September 13-15, 2016, December 2-3, 2016, and April 10-11, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median for each is 7%.

Key Drivers of Mayor Piercy Ratings

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This post tests which issues were most important to respondents in rating Mayor Piercy and then measures their share of impact.

Building trust was the most important. This makes sense because of its role in passing measures and moving community consensus. Traffic and downtown are important as is working with other local governments.

QUESTIONS:
How would you rate the job Eugene Mayor Kitty Piercy is doing: excellent, good, fair, poor?

How would you rate the job Eugene Mayor Kitty Piercy is doing: excellent, good, fair, poor?

Now I would like to list a set of issues facing Eugene and ask you to rate how well Mayor Piercy did on each issue: excellent, good, fair, poor?
RANDOMIZE ORDER
1. Protecting wetlands and other environmentally sensitive areas in the city?
2. Promoting sustainability?
3. Working with other cities and Lane County?
4. Reducing crime?
5. Fixing potholes and street improvements?
6. Bringing new jobs to Eugene?
7. Reducing traffic congestion?
8. Revitalizing downtown Eugene?
9. Increasing affordable housing?
10. Building trust in Eugene’s government?
11. Solving the homeless problem?
12. Building city hall?

METHODOLOGY: 240 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene General election voters were conducted November 29 through December 1, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median is 6%.

Various specifications of a multiple regression model were applied to the data. There are limitations using a five-point scale in this kind of work. However, the results are highly consistent regardless of specification.

Summary of Mayor Piercy Ratings

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This summarizes the issues where Mayor Piercy was tested. Only three of the twelve had positive net approvals and three have net approvals below minus 50%.

QUESTION: Now I would like to list a set of issues facing Eugene and ask you to rate how well Mayor Piercy did on each issue: excellent, good, fair, poor?
RANDOMIZE ORDER
1. Protecting wetlands and other environmentally sensitive areas in the city?
2. Promoting sustainability?
3. Working with other cities and Lane County?
4. Reducing crime?
5. Fixing potholes and street improvements?
6. Bringing new jobs to Eugene?
7. Reducing traffic congestion?
8. Revitalizing downtown Eugene?
9. Increasing affordable housing?
10. Building trust in Eugene’s government?
11. Solving the homeless problem?
12. Building city hall?

METHODOLOGY: 240 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene General election voters were conducted November 29 through December 1, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median is 6%.

Net approval equals the percentage rating Mayor Piercy either excellent or good minus the percentage rating her either fair or poor. This is the standard methodology used in the polling in this blog. As a practical matter, it is a good predictor of voting behavior.

Piercy Rating on Solving the Homeless Problem

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Nearly half of Eugeneans rate Mayor Piercy as poor on homelessness. This was a major issue during the last half of her administration; and particularly since the 2011-12 Occupy Eugene episode.

Lucy Vinis made homelessness a major issue during her successful May 2016 campaign.

QUESTION: Now I would like to list a set of issues facing Eugene and ask you to rate how well Mayor Piercy did on each issue: excellent, good, fair, poor?
Solving the homeless problem?

METHODOLOGY: 240 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene General election voters were conducted November 29 through December 1, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median is 6%.

Piercy Rating on Building City Hall

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Well over half of Eugeneans rate Mayor Piercy as doing a poor job on building the new city hall.

This poll was taken just after the Register Guard’s investigative report on city hall, though polling throughout the year had indicated people saw problems.

QUESTION: Now I would like to list a set of issues facing Eugene and ask you to rate how well Mayor Piercy did on each issue: excellent, good, fair, poor?
Building city hall?

METHODOLOGY: 240 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene General election voters were conducted November 29 through December 1, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median is 6%.