Posts tagged ‘Eugene Politics’

Eugene Measure 20-275 Tracking

Support for the streets measure (20-275) steadily increased over time. The city voters’ pamphlet arrived just after the first survey. In addition, the measure was widely endorsed. Positive information about the measure steadily increased. In addition, there was no opposition campaign.
The measure began as a toss up at 51%. Previous streets measures have passed by wide margins and started well ahead. That the city’s information was critical implies there was an initial lack of trust of the city. The low initial standing of measure 20-274, which was just a housekeeping measure, provides some confirmation of the low standing of city government.
QUESTION: Would you vote yes or no on Measure 20-275: Shall City of Eugene fix streets and fund bicycle and pedestrian projects using $51.2 million in general obligation bonds? If the bonds are approved, they will be payable from taxes on property or property ownership that are not subject to the limits of the Oregon Constitution.
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?
METHODOLOGY: Tracking surveys consisting of 200 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene Special Election voters were conducted each of October 18-19 and October 30-31, 2017. The margin of error for each survey was plus or minus 7%.
SOURCE OF DATA: Lane County Elections: November 7, 2017 election results.

Eugene Measure 20-274 Tracking: Forecast Results

Predicted support for the measure quickly rose to its final level. The arrival of the city voters’ pamphlet and widespread endorsements certainly helped.
QUESTION: Would you vote yes or no on Measure 20-274: Shall the City of Eugene Charter be amended to eliminate an election in the fourth year of a vacated Mayor’s or Councilor’s term?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?
METHODOLOGY: Tracking surveys consisting of 200 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene Special Election voters were conducted each of October 18-19 and October 30-31, 2017. The margin of error for each survey was plus or minus 7%.
SOURCE OF DATA: Lane County Elections: November 7, 2017 election results.

Eugene Measure 20-274 Tracking

Measure 20-274, a city election housekeeping measure passed by a wide margin. Historically, the final percentage is well in line with other housekeeping measure. The initial support level, however, was very low. Voters became informed of the measure over time and this led to its landslide win.
QUESTION: Would you vote yes or no on Measure 20-274: Shall the City of Eugene Charter be amended to eliminate an election in the fourth year of a vacated Mayor’s or Councilor’s term?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?
METHODOLOGY: Tracking surveys consisting of 200 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene Special Election voters were conducted each of October 18-19 and October 30-31, 2017. The margin of error for each survey was plus or minus 7%.
SOURCE OF DATA: Lane County Elections: November 7, 2017 election results.

Eugene November Special Posts

During the next few weeks we’ll be posting analyses of this past November 7 Eugene Special Election.

Eugene Housing & Rental Prices Too High

The best way to look at this question is to compare the “expensive” and the “just about right” percentages. The “expensive” greatly exceeds the “just about right,” by nearly two-to-one.

QUESTION: How would you rate housing and rental prices in Eugene, in general, are they too expensive, too inexpensive, or just about right?
METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely General Election voters were conducted April 10-11, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median is 7%.

Vinis Mayoral Job Approval Rating Is Net Negative

Vinis’ job approval rating is underwater. A net negative rating like this implies she has not benefited from any honeymoon.

It’s is important to distinguish between the types of data. Mayor Vinis is relatively unknown, but those who know her like her. In the office of the mayor, on the other hand, she is underperforming.

QUESTION: How would you rate the job Eugene Mayor Lucy Vinis is doing: excellent, good, fair, poor?
METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely General Election voters were conducted April 10-11, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median is 7%.

Vinis Favorability High – Among Those Who Know Her

Though Lucy Vinis is only known by a little more than half of Eugeneans, she is personally well liked by those who know of her. Her favorability ratio of about four-to-one (40/11) is very good.

QUESTION: Now, I am going to read the names of some people and organizations. Please tell me whether you have heard of each: Lucy Vinis? IF HEARD OF … Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Lucy Vinis? IF FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE: Is that strongly or somewhat?
METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely General Election voters were conducted each of September 13-15, 2016, December 2-3, 2016, and April 10-11, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median for each is 7%.

Major Eugene-Area Leader Name Familiarity Post 2016 Primary Election

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This analysis is particularly interesting because it shows the impact of campaigns. Clark, Farr, and Sorenson ran in the May primary. Their name familiarity increased because of this. However, once the campaigns were done, their name familiarity dropped. They were no longer in the public eye. Piercy was mayor throughout the period and not on the ballot. This explains her consistency. Vinis remained constant because she was preparing to become Mayor in January 2017.

Emily Semple’s name familiarity appears also to have been affected by her campaign lasting until November (see http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=13965).

QUESTION: Now, I am going to read the names of some people and organizations. Please tell me whether you have heard of each. IF HEARD OF … Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of ______ IF FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE: Is that strongly or somewhat?
RANDOMIZE ORDER
1. Kitty Piercy
2. Lucy Vinis
3. Mike Clark
4. Peter Sorenson
5. Pat Farr

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene General election voters were conducted September 13-15, 2016.The margin of error at the sample median for this surveys is 7%. 240 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene General election voters were conducted November 29 through December 1, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median for this survey is 6%.

Eugene Mayoral Name Familiarity Comparable to Council’s

One way of seeing how low Mayor Vinis’ name familiarity is, is to compare her with the city councilors. Two, Betty Taylor and Mike Clark, are higher. Emily Semple is reasonably close. A mayor’s name familiarity should be much higher. Historically, it is generally in the 90s in Eugene.

QUESTION: City of Eugene Office of the Independent Auditor. The auditor would be elected to four-year terms, would operate separately from the city council and manager and would conduct financial, performance and other audits of all city operations and activities.
METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely General Election voters were conducted April 10-11, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median is 7%.
Lucy Vinis
Emily Semple
Betty Taylor
Alan Zelenka
George Poling
Mike Clark
Greg Evans
Claire Syrett
Chris Pryor

N.B. George Poling’s resignation from the council was effective the first day of survey interviewing.

Vinis’s Name Familiarity Stays Level

Despite being mayor-elect for nearly a year, Mayor Lucy Vinis’ name familiarity has barely budged since the campaign ended.

QUESTION: Now, I am going to read the names of some people and organizations. Please tell me whether you have heard of each: Lucy Vinis?
METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely General Election voters were conducted each of September 13-15, 2016, December 2-3, 2016, and April 10-11, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median for each is 7%.