Posts tagged ‘Eugene Street Bond’

Updated Polling on Eugene’s November Street Bond Measure

Support for the Eugene Street Bond Measure dropped significantly between the May and November surveys.

The support in May stood at 59 percent. The support in September stood at 49 percent. Under normal circumstances, most “undecided/don’t know” voters will vote no. Using that assumption, the street bond has a 50/50 chance to win. A significant drop since polling in 2008 and from earlier this year.

The May poll implied that the bond was in good shape and had lost little support since it was on the 2008 ballot. The new polling implies that supporters need to do some work to guarantee passage of the bond.

There are two plausible reasons for this drop. First, it’s possible that actual support for street repairs has dropped over time. However, nearly all the other questions in the September survey show an increase, not a decrease, in optimism around Eugene since May. Second, it’s possible the different wording of the question and, implicitly, the different components of the bond measure, are much less favored. This latter possibility seems to make more sense.

The undecided percentage continues to be well above ten percent and verging on twenty percent. This is very high for a repeat local money measure in Eugene at this stage.

Data came from questions with two different question wordings. The exact wording of the measure was not known when the May survey questionnaire was prepared.

QUESTION: MAY 2012
Now, I would like to ask you about some issues facing Eugene. Do you support or oppose a $43 million street repair bond?

QUESTION: SEPTEMBER 2012
Now, I would like to ask you about some measures that will be on Eugene’s November ballot. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on  Measure 20-197 : Shall Eugene fix streets and fund bicycle and pedestrian projects using $43 million in general obligation bonds?

METHODOLOGY
200 telephone interviews of likely 2012 Eugene General Election voters were conducted May 23 and 24, 2012 and September 9 and 10, 2012. The margin of error at the sample median for each survey is 7 percent.