Posts tagged ‘Lane County Politics’

Springfield County Commissioner May 2018 Primary Tracking

The Springfield contest was very different than the West Lane contest. Sid Leiken started in a very safe position: in the mid 50s. Then, between the ballots going out and a week before the election his support collapsed. He dropped 10%, down to the mid 40s. Not only that, but the Leiken campaign kept collapsing during the final week. Normally, Leiken would be expected to get about a third of the remaining 21% undecided. He only won a tenth!
Leiken’s 2014 race was more normal (see: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=10690).
In the last post we saw that Bozievich won West Lane due to the campaign. In this post we see that Leiken lost Springfield due to the campaign.
QUESTION: If the election were held today for Lane County Commissioner, would you vote for: Joe Berney or Sid Leiken? [IF DON’T KNOW]: Which way do you lean?
METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of likely Springfield County Commission District 2018 Primary voters were conducted each of March 12-13, April 23-24, and May 7-9, 2018. The margin of error for each survey at the sample median is plus or minus 7%.

West Lane County Commissioner May 2018 Primary Tracking

The story here is Jay Bozievich’s steady climb from a very weak position to a solid victory. In 2014 he barely won – it went down to a recount. After that, everyone knew he was weak. And a county commissioner running for re-election starting with less than 30% support is pretty weak. The big shift appears to have happened early. The King campaign essentially disintegrated in the weeks just before the ballots went out. During the final three weeks of the campaign Bozievich just cruised to victory.
Bozievich won re-election because of the campaign and not because of what he’d been doing for voters the past four years.
For comparison, see the tracking on Bozievich’s 2014 race: lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=10672
QUESTION: If the election were held today for Lane County Commissioner, would you vote for: Jay Bozievich, Beverley Hills, or Nora Kent? [IF DON’T KNOW]: Which way do you lean?
METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of likely West Lane County Commission District 2018 Primary voters were conducted each of March 12-13, April 23-24, and May 7-10, 2018. The margin of error for each survey at the sample median is plus or minus 7%.

Partisan swing by Selected Lane and Clackamas Local Election Results

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Republicans and business candidates are able to achieve a much greater partisan swing in Lane County than in Clackamas County.

Sources: Lane County Elections; Clackamas County Elections.

Method: The partisan swing equals the winning margin minus the difference between the Republican and the Democratic registration margins. A swing of zero means that the winning percentage exactly followed the partisan registration percentage. A positive swing means that the pro-business candidate won a greater percentage than the partisan registration would imply.

Lane County Commissioner Incumbent Re-Election Rate: 2000 through 2016

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Overall, 2/3s of Lane County Commissioners have run and won re-election this century. Of those who tried, 3/4s have won.

Source: Lane County Elections; Lane County Board of Commissioners.

Historic Lane County Commissioner Election Results

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After a period of high risk and high attrition for Lane County Commissioners, it appears that things have settled down. Five out of the last five commissioners running for re-election have been successful. Three positions, East Lane, Springfield, and West Lane, will be up in 2018. We’ll all see if this trend of stability continues.

Source: Lane County Elections

Partisan Swing for Major Lane County Non-Partisan Contests: 2008-2016

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Pro-business candidates in Lane County have achieved significant partisan swings. However, they range widely – from a high of 48% to a low of 3%.

Source: Lane County Elections.

Method: The partisan swing equals the winning margin minus the difference between the Republican and the Democratic registration margins. A swing of zero means that the winning percentage exactly followed the partisan registration percentage. A positive swing means that the pro-business candidate won a greater percentage than the partisan registration would imply.

Series Analyzing Lane County Politics

Starting tomorrow and continuing on Thursdays will be a series of posts analyzing the history of Lane County politics and looking ahead to the three commissioner election

s later this year.

Lane Jail Levy Key Demographics

As one would expect with a money measure, the most important demographic distinction is by party: Democrats are more supportive than Republicans and Others. Of greater interest is the increasing Democratic support over time. That more frequently voting non-Democrats are more likely to have decided to  vote no is common since they are usually relatively better informed. Remember that “Don’t Knows” in Lane County-area money measures almost always vote no.

BALLOT QUESTION WORDING:
DECEMBER 2016
Now, as you may know, Lane County is considering renewing the current jail levy.
If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this measure: Renewal of jail, youth services, and related treatment, five-year-levy. Shall County retain jail beds and adult/youth offender treatments levying maximum of $0.55 [55 cents] per $1,000 assessed valuation for five years commencing 2018/19. This measure renews current local option taxes?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

APRIL & MAY 2017
If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this measure:
Renewal of jail and critical youth services five-year-levy. Shall County retain jail beds, critical youth treatments levying $0.55 [55 cents] per $1,000 assessed valuation, for five years commencing 2018/19. This measure renews current local option taxes?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY:

INTERVIEWS: 200 live telephone interviews of likely 2017 Lane County Special Election voters were conducted on each of December 12-14, 2016, April 24 and 25, 2017, and May 8 and 9, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median for each of the surveys is plus or minus 7%.

STATISTICS: CHAID (Chi-Squared Automatic Interaction Detection) was used to create the tree.

Lane Jail Levy-Opinion Strength Trend

Notable is the increasing strength of Yes opinion over time. The “Strongly Yes” increased dramatically between December and April and stayed high.

BALLOT QUESTION WORDING:
DECEMBER 2016
Now, as you may know, Lane County is considering renewing the current jail levy.
If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this measure: Renewal of jail, youth services, and related treatment, five-year-levy. Shall County retain jail beds and adult/youth offender treatments levying maximum of $0.55 [55 cents] per $1,000 assessed valuation for five years commencing 2018/19. This measure renews current local option taxes?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

APRIL & MAY 2017
If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this measure:
Renewal of jail and critical youth services five-year-levy. Shall County retain jail beds, critical youth treatments levying $0.55 [55 cents] per $1,000 assessed valuation, for five years commencing 2018/19. This measure renews current local option taxes?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of likely 2017 Lane County Special Election voters were conducted on each of December 12-14, 2016, April 24 and 25, 2017, and May 8 and 9, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median for each of the surveys is plus or minus 7%.

Lane Jail Levy Forecast Trend

The forecast yes percentage for the Lane Jail Levy was always above 60%.

BALLOT QUESTION WORDING:
DECEMBER 2016
Now, as you may know, Lane County is considering renewing the current jail levy.
If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this measure: Renewal of jail, youth services, and related treatment, five-year-levy. Shall County retain jail beds and adult/youth offender treatments levying maximum of $0.55 [55 cents] per $1,000 assessed valuation for five years commencing 2018/19. This measure renews current local option taxes?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

APRIL & MAY 2017
If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this measure:
Renewal of jail and critical youth services five-year-levy. Shall County retain jail beds, critical youth treatments levying $0.55 [55 cents] per $1,000 assessed valuation, for five years commencing 2018/19. This measure renews current local option taxes?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of likely 2017 Lane County Special Election voters were conducted on each of December 12-14, 2016, April 24 and 25, 2017, and May 8 and 9, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median for each of the surveys is plus or minus 7%.

ELECTION RETURNS: Lane County Elections.