Posts tagged ‘Lane County Politics’

Series on 2017 Special Election Begins

This blog will start tomorrow to post analysis of the 2017 May Special Election. The primary focus will be on countywide results and the recent jail levy, but other topics will be covered.

Posts will continue regularly on Mondays. Occasionally, posts will be made on weekends.

Lane County Commission Board Job Performance Rating Trend

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The job performance rating of the Lane County Board of Commissioners has been remarkably stable the past two years.

QUESTION: How would you rate the job the Lane County Board of Commissioners is doing: excellent, good, fair, poor?

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene General election voters were conducted February 16-18, June 1-2, September 21-22, and December 1-2, 2015, and February 22-23, and September 13-15, 2016.The margin of error at the sample median for this surveys is 7%. In addition, 240 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene General election voters were conducted November 29 through December 1, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median for this survey is 6%.

Recent Eugene Area Net Partisan Swing Margins

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This chart goes over the swing margins in some recent contests. The idea is that not every district is created equal. In particular, it’s pretty easy for a Democrat to build up a big margin in Eugene. Similarly, it’s relatively easier for a Republican to win in rural Lane County than in Eugene.

Farr’s margins, despite facing an incumbent in 2012 and an opponent with a long resume in 2016, were the largest of the group.

The standard swing in the state legislature or in other areas of the state is under 10%.

Source: Lane County Elections.

Methodology: Based on vote percentages at election and the corresponding voter registration figures. Equals the net margin ahead of principal progressive opponent plus the Democratic minus Republican registration margin. Green indicates a win and red indicates a loss.

Recent Co. Comm. Vote Percentages

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Pat Farr in 2016 received the highest vote for county commissioner in the past five years.

Source: Lane County Elections

Note that Pete Sorenson was unopposed in 2016 so was not included.

Perlow Tops Among Oregon DA Candidates

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Lane County District Attorney Patty Perlow received the highest percentage among all the DA candidates on Oregon’s May ballot.

Source: Oregon Secretary of State.

(I) = incumbent.

Disclaimer: Lindholm Company served as the general consultant on the Perlow campaign.

Farr Performance Improves Over 2012 Landslide Win

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Pat Farr dramatically improved his percentage over 2012 despite facing a strong opponent and a less hospitable partisan registration margin.

The district’s registration has been trending Democratic. The net Republican margin has dropped by nearly 5% since 2012.

Farr’s opponent in 2012, incumbent Rob Handy, was beset by a wide range of challenges. On the other hand, Farr’s opponent in 2016, Tony McCown, has long experience on the Lane Community College Board and has served on numerous key City of Eugene and Lane County committees. With the exception of Farr himself in 2012, McCown was easily the most experienced challenger to a Lane County Commissioner seeking re-election in the past decade.

Disclaimer: Lindholm Company supported and worked on the Pat Farr campaign.

Source: Lane County Elections. 2016 numbers are unofficial as of end of election night.

Support for Extension Levy from Eugene Voters

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The extension levy on the May ballot receives a vote of confidence from this poll. Two big caveats: 1. These are only Eugene voters – county voters weren’t polled. 2. These are General Election voters – probably a much larger set of voters than will actually vote in May. These could be big differences. Historically (based on 1990s polling!), both Eugene voters and General Election voters are comparatively more supportive of extension levies than, respectively, non-Eugene county voters and primary voters.

QUESTION: Do you support or oppose five year a local option property tax levy supporting 4-H and OSU Extension Programs in Lane County?
IF SUPPORT/OPPOSE: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene General Election voters were conducted February 22-23, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median is 7%. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

Lane County Commission 2015 Job Performance Trend

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The job performance rating of the county commissioners has generally trended downward during 2015.

QUESTION: How would you rate the job the Lane County Board of Commissioners is doing: excellent, good, fair, poor?

METHODOLOGY: 200 telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely general election voters were conducted the nights of February 16-18, June 1-2, September 21-22, and December 1-2, 2015. The margin of error at the median is 7%. Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

Relative Eugene Library Vote in Comparison

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The library levy index exceeds the previous average index most in wards 1 and 3 – which were also its best performing wards. The biggest relative drop off occurred in Ward 5.

Source of data: Lane County Elections.

Geographic Orientation:
South Eugene = Wards 1, 2, and 3.
North Eugene = Wards 4 and 5.
West Eugene = Wards 6, 7, and 8.
For a map of council districts: http://eugene-or.gov/index.aspx?NID=2636

Methodology: Index = 100*(Ward %)/(Citywide %)

Note that the citywide index is always = 100.

The last three measures were the May 2015 Lane Vehicle Registration Fee, the May 2013 Lane Jail Levy, and the May 2013 Eugene City Fee.

Eugene and Springfield Turnout in Recent Special Elections

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This compares turnout in recent special elections in Eugene and Springfield. Each city’s voters faced at least one money measure on the ballot during each election.

Several observations stand out: 1. Eugene’s turnout exceeded Springfield’s in every election – sometimes by a lot! 2. Springfield’s turnout has been more stable. 3. Contrary to some reports, this past November’s turnout was not especially low for a special election with money measures.

Money measures by election by relevent jurisdiction:
May 2013: Lane and Eugene
May 2015: Lane
Nov. 2015: Eugene and Springfield

In general money measures drive turnout in special elections. All else equal, the turnout roughly doubles.

Source of data: Lane County Elections