Posts tagged ‘Lane County Polling’

Lane Jail Levy Key Demographics

As one would expect with a money measure, the most important demographic distinction is by party: Democrats are more supportive than Republicans and Others. Of greater interest is the increasing Democratic support over time. That more frequently voting non-Democrats are more likely to have decided to  vote no is common since they are usually relatively better informed. Remember that “Don’t Knows” in Lane County-area money measures almost always vote no.

BALLOT QUESTION WORDING:
DECEMBER 2016
Now, as you may know, Lane County is considering renewing the current jail levy.
If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this measure: Renewal of jail, youth services, and related treatment, five-year-levy. Shall County retain jail beds and adult/youth offender treatments levying maximum of $0.55 [55 cents] per $1,000 assessed valuation for five years commencing 2018/19. This measure renews current local option taxes?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

APRIL & MAY 2017
If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this measure:
Renewal of jail and critical youth services five-year-levy. Shall County retain jail beds, critical youth treatments levying $0.55 [55 cents] per $1,000 assessed valuation, for five years commencing 2018/19. This measure renews current local option taxes?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY:

INTERVIEWS: 200 live telephone interviews of likely 2017 Lane County Special Election voters were conducted on each of December 12-14, 2016, April 24 and 25, 2017, and May 8 and 9, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median for each of the surveys is plus or minus 7%.

STATISTICS: CHAID (Chi-Squared Automatic Interaction Detection) was used to create the tree.

Lane Jail Levy-Opinion Strength Trend

Notable is the increasing strength of Yes opinion over time. The “Strongly Yes” increased dramatically between December and April and stayed high.

BALLOT QUESTION WORDING:
DECEMBER 2016
Now, as you may know, Lane County is considering renewing the current jail levy.
If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this measure: Renewal of jail, youth services, and related treatment, five-year-levy. Shall County retain jail beds and adult/youth offender treatments levying maximum of $0.55 [55 cents] per $1,000 assessed valuation for five years commencing 2018/19. This measure renews current local option taxes?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

APRIL & MAY 2017
If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this measure:
Renewal of jail and critical youth services five-year-levy. Shall County retain jail beds, critical youth treatments levying $0.55 [55 cents] per $1,000 assessed valuation, for five years commencing 2018/19. This measure renews current local option taxes?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of likely 2017 Lane County Special Election voters were conducted on each of December 12-14, 2016, April 24 and 25, 2017, and May 8 and 9, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median for each of the surveys is plus or minus 7%.

Lane Jail Levy Forecast Trend

The forecast yes percentage for the Lane Jail Levy was always above 60%.

BALLOT QUESTION WORDING:
DECEMBER 2016
Now, as you may know, Lane County is considering renewing the current jail levy.
If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this measure: Renewal of jail, youth services, and related treatment, five-year-levy. Shall County retain jail beds and adult/youth offender treatments levying maximum of $0.55 [55 cents] per $1,000 assessed valuation for five years commencing 2018/19. This measure renews current local option taxes?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

APRIL & MAY 2017
If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this measure:
Renewal of jail and critical youth services five-year-levy. Shall County retain jail beds, critical youth treatments levying $0.55 [55 cents] per $1,000 assessed valuation, for five years commencing 2018/19. This measure renews current local option taxes?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of likely 2017 Lane County Special Election voters were conducted on each of December 12-14, 2016, April 24 and 25, 2017, and May 8 and 9, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median for each of the surveys is plus or minus 7%.

ELECTION RETURNS: Lane County Elections.

Lane Jail Levy Polling Trend

The Lane Jail Levy was far ahead throughout the campaign. Support was never below 60%.

BALLOT QUESTION WORDING:
DECEMBER 2016
Now, as you may know, Lane County is considering renewing the current jail levy.
If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this measure: Renewal of jail, youth services, and related treatment, five-year-levy. Shall County retain jail beds and adult/youth offender treatments levying maximum of $0.55 [55 cents] per $1,000 assessed valuation for five years commencing 2018/19. This measure renews current local option taxes?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

APRIL & MAY 2017
If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this measure:
Renewal of jail and critical youth services five-year-levy. Shall County retain jail beds, critical youth treatments levying $0.55 [55 cents] per $1,000 assessed valuation, for five years commencing 2018/19. This measure renews current local option taxes?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of likely 2017 Lane County Special Election voters were conducted on each of December 12-14, 2016, April 24 and 25, 2017, and May 8 and 9, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median for each of the surveys is plus or minus 7%.

ELECTION RETURNS: Lane County Elections.

Countywide Lane Board Job Performance Trend

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Pat Farr’s landslide win does not mean the Lane County Board is necessarily seen in any better light throughout the county. The Lane County Board of Commissioners’ rating has remained roughly level since June.

QUESTION: How would you rate the job Lane County Board of Commissioners is doing: excellent, good, fair, poor?

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of likely Lane general election voters were conducted February 29-March 3, 2012, October 28-29, 2013, June 29-30, 2015, and January 25-26, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median is 7 percent for all surveys.

As with all measures of approval and disapproval based on job performance questions on this blog: excellent and good are judged approval and fair and poor disapproval. This method tends to be a good predictor of associated decision variables.

How is Lane County doing its job?

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None of these ratings is particularly good. Interestingly Lane County is rated relatively best treating the environment and worst on spending its budget. It is important to note that people rate what they see and rarely get into the minutiae of government.

QUESTION: How would you rate how well Lane County is ___________ on a scale of zero to ten, where zero is worst and ten is best?
RANDOMIZE ORDER PARTS ARE READ
a. Fighting crime.
b. Maintaining roads.
c. Spending its budget.
d. Supporting economic growth.
e. Protecting the environment.

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of Lane County likely general election voters were conducted June 29-30, 2015. The margin of error at the median is 7%.

Lane County Commissioner Job Performance Trend

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Though the approval rating has increased significantly since 2012, the disapproval rating increased sharply since 2013. This is almost entirely due to undecided respondents moving into the disapproval category. In other words, the good new is that more people are paying attention to Lane County. And the bad news for the commissioners is that more people are paying attention to Lane County.

QUESTION: How would you rate the job the Lane County Board of Commissioners is doing: excellent, good, fair, poor?

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of Lane County likely general election voters were conducted each of February 29-March 3, 2012, October 28-29, 2013, and June 29-30, 2015. The margin of error at the median is 7%.

“Excellent” and “good” responses were grouped as “approve” and “fair” and “poor” responses were grouped as “disapprove.” This is a common methodology and is, in general, a better predictor of election results.

Vehicle Registration Fee Trend and Polling Error Margins

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This post looks at the predicted yes percentage. It was always close to the final margin. This means the campaigns, both privately run and county-run, provided little significant information to voters.

QUESTION: Lane County plans to place this measure on the May ballot:
To ensure road safety by modestly increasing vehicle registration fee.  Shall streets, roads, and bridges be kept safe and well maintained through a $35/year increase in the vehicle registration fee? If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: Live telephone interviews of 200 likely Lane County May Special Election voters were conducted each of March 9-10, 2015, April 1-2, April 27-28, and May 10-11, 2015. The margin of error at the sample median for each survey is 7%. Registered voters were called. Quotas were established based on gender, age, party, and region. Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

ELECTION RESULTS: Lane County Elections, Final Unofficial.

Vehicle Registration Fee Trend with Election Results

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The measure’s support hovered around the mid 30s since the Voter’s Pamphlet was sent. The opposition was never much below 60%. The measure never had a chance.

QUESTION: Lane County plans to place this measure on the May ballot:
To ensure road safety by modestly increasing vehicle registration fee.  Shall streets, roads, and bridges be kept safe and well maintained through a $35/year increase in the vehicle registration fee? If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: Live telephone interviews of 200 likely Lane County May Special Election voters were conducted each of March 9-10, 2015, April 1-2, April 27-28, and May 10-11, 2015. The margin of error at the sample median for each survey is 7%. Registered voters were called. Quotas were established based on gender, age, party, and region. Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

ELECTION RESULTS: Lane County Elections, Final Unofficial.

The High Accuracy Continues

After getting every statewide partisan candidate and statewide measure contest right in last November’s General Election, the company’s extended that streak.

The company got Lane County’s Vehicle Registration Fee result right last night. The company’s polling was consistently below 40 percent and the final result, as of this writing, looks to be around 34 percent – within the margin of error of every single one of our polls.

This blog will post more results about the election after Lane County Elections produces the Final Unofficial results later this week.