Posts tagged ‘Measure 101’

Measure 101 Tracking Polls Key Demographics

Party registration was the most important predictor of how someone would vote on the measure. Paralleling the declining undecided, this analysis shows that Democrats coalesced behind the measure and Republicans coalesced in opposition.
QUESTION: If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Measure 101: Approves temporary assessments to fund health care for low-income individuals and families, and to stabilize health insurance premiums. Temporary assessments on insurance companies, some hospitals, and other providers of insurance or health care coverage. Insurers may not increase rates on health insurance premiums by more than 1.5 percent as a result of these assessments.
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?
METHODOLOGY: 400 live telephone interviews of likely Oregon January Special Election voters were conducted December 11-13, 2017, January 3-5, 2018, and January 15-17, 2018. The margin of error at the sample median for each of the surveys is 5%. Sampling was based on voter lists and used quotas to create a representative sample. The panel includes 1200 interviews with a margin of error at the sample median of 3%.

Measure 101 Tracking

Measure 101 kept a significant lead throughout the campaign. Voters had little information at the start of the campaign (a  whopping 28% undecided). The share opposing steadily increased. The last minute push by the “Yes” campaign had an impact.
QUESTION: If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Measure 101: Approves temporary assessments to fund health care for low-income individuals and families, and to stabilize health insurance premiums. Temporary assessments on insurance companies, some hospitals, and other providers of insurance or health care coverage. Insurers may not increase rates on health insurance premiums by more than 1.5 percent as a result of these assessments.
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?
METHODOLOGY: 400 live telephone interviews of likely Oregon January Special Election voters were conducted December 11-13, 2017, January 3-5, 2018, and January 15-17, 2018. The margin of error at the sample median for each of the surveys is 5%. Sampling was based on voter lists and used quotas to create a representative sample. The panel includes 1200 interviews with a margin of error at the sample median of 3%.

Measure 101 Key Demographics

As should be no surprise to anyone, the most important demographic split is by party. Democrats are clearly more supportive.
QUESTION: If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Measure 101: Approves temporary assessments to fund health care for low-income individuals and families, and to stabilize health insurance premiums. Temporary assessments on insurance companies, some hospitals, and other providers of insurance or health care coverage. Insurers may not increase rates on health insurance premiums by more than 1.5 percent as a result of these assessments.
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?
METHODOLOGY: 400 live telephone interviews of likely State of Oregon January Special Election voters statewide were conducted December 11-13, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%. Sampling was based on voter lists and used quotas to create a representative sample.
CHAID was used to create the tree diagram.
STATEMENT OF INTEREST: No company associated with this blog is working for either campaign. The Lindholm Company, LLC, owns all results.

Measure 101 Tracking Top Lines

Measure 101 is receiving support from slightly more than half of likely voters. Considering it is a tax measure, undecided voters are likely to be no voters on net. The high “Don’t Know,” more than a quarter of respondents, shows that the general public has very little information about this measure.
In comparison to the January 2010 election and measures 66 and 67 at this time in 2009 (http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=1646), Measure 101 is doing better among voters, but has a larger “Don’t Know.”
The bottom line is that voters haven’t settled on this measure and, given these data, it shouldn’t surprise anyone too much if either “Yes” or “No” won in the end.
QUESTION: If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Measure 101: Approves temporary assessments to fund health care for low-income individuals and families, and to stabilize health insurance premiums. Temporary assessments on insurance companies, some hospitals, and other providers of insurance or health care coverage. Insurers may not increase rates on health insurance premiums by more than 1.5 percent as a result of these assessments.
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?
METHODOLOGY: 400 live telephone interviews of likely State of Oregon January Special Election voters statewide were conducted December 11-13, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%. Sampling was based on voter lists and used quotas to create a representative sample.
STATEMENT OF INTEREST: No company associated with this blog is working for either campaign. The Lindholm Company, LLC, owns all results.