Posts tagged ‘North Eugene Primary’

Comparing Farr and Clark Vote Percentages in North Eugene

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This graphic compares the percentages in City of Eugene precincts that are in the North Eugene County Commissioner district.

Farr’s percentage equals the Clark percentage plus the other candidates’ percentages plus more than a tenth of Vinis’ percentage. Farr beat Clark by double digits in every precinct where both were on the ballot.

Clark’s 53% in these prime precincts was also clearly not enough. Earlier posts showed that he made few if any inroads into the Piercy coalition. This graphic shows he significantly underperformed in among the Torrey coalition.

This could actually be worse than it seems. Since Vinis had to win over south Eugene voters while Farr’s opponent, Tony McCown, could create a north-Eugene-specific message, one would expect Clark to receive a higher, not a lower, percentage of the voters than Farr. This pattern has been borne our over time, such as in 2000 and 2008.

Source of data: Lane County Elections

Disclaimer: Lindholm Company provided in-kind and at-cost materials for the Farr campaign.

Pat Farr’s Increasing Favorability – December 2011 to May 2012

Despite Eugene being such a divided city between North and South, Pat Farr’s campaign for county commissioner significantly raised his favorability ratings citywide in Eugene.

QUESTION:
Now, I am going to read the names of some people. Please tell me whether you have heard of each. IF HEARD OF … Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Pat Farr?

METHODOLOGY:
All surveys consist of 200 telephone interviews of likely Eugene General Election voters. The margin of error at the overall sample median is plus or minus 7 percent.

The surveys were conducted December 5-6, 2011, January 10-11, 2012 and May 23-24,2012.

The graphic only includes “Hard Name ID” ratings. “Don’t Know” and “No Opinion” ratings were omitted.

Divided Eugene: Handy and Prociw Votes Compared

This post shows something interesting from the May Primary.

Here are numbers from all the City of Eugene precincts that are also in the North Eugene County Commissioner District. Kevin Prociw received 5,100 votes for Mayor and Rob Handy received 3,398 votes for County Commissioner.

In part, this shows how badly Handy and Prociw were beaten.

This also shows Eugene really is a divided town. Handy running as an incumbent county commissioner was handily out polled by a candidate outspent nearly 35 to 1.

METHODOLOGICAL NOTES: 1. Wards 7 and 8 were grouped together because include only small portions of the North Eugene County Commission District. For the record, Handy won Ward 7. 2. There is not a perfect overlap with Precinct 1781. There were 30 fewer voters in the North Eugene County Commissioner district than in the City of Eugene. All other precincts had an identical number of voters.

North Eugene County Commission Votes by Region

This graphic compares the support for Pat Farr, Rob Handy, and Nadia Sindi by region in the North Eugene County Commissioner District 2012 Primary.

Overall, Farr won by nearly two-to-one and a nearly 30-point margin. Farr also won seven of the eight regions defined above. He even won the portion of Ward 7 in the district.

Handy only won his River Road home ground. However, Handy’s margin was only 14 points! Eugene city councilors rarely do well in River Road. River Road Community Organization neighborhood leaders often do very well there.

Trends in the North Eugene County Commission Race

The results seem self explanatory. Pat Farr has surged.

If any candidate wins 50 percent or more of the votes in the Primary Election, their name will be the only one to appear on the General Election ballot.

METHODOLOGY: The surveys were conducted November 8 through 11, 2011 and January 22 through 24, 2012. The sBoth surveys consist of 300 telephone interviews of randomly selected likely May 2012 Primary voters in the North Eugene County Commission district. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus six percent.

The three-way ballot question was asked first. The three two-way ballot questions were asked next in an order that varied randomly by respondent

The surveys were conducted in the same way. See: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=7355.

DISCLAIMER: The November survey was done on behalf of the Farr for County Commissioner campaign. The January survey was paid for solely by The Lindholm Company, LLC. See the earlier post for more information on the January survey: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=7355.

North Eugene Commission District Polling Results: January 2012 Survey

The results seem self explanatory.

If any candidate wins 50 percent or more of the votes in the Primary Election, their name will be the only one to appear on the General Election ballot.

METHODOLOGY: The survey was conducted January 22 through 24, 2012, and consists of 300 telephone interviews of randomly selected likely May 2012 Primary voters in the North Eugene County Commission district. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus six percent.

The three-way ballot question was asked first. The three two-way ballot questions were asked next in an order that varied randomly by respondent

These results are from initial ballot questions. No information was provided to any respondent about any of the candidates prior to asking these questions. The ballot questions were only preceded by questions about name identification of community leaders and a placebo name in order to minimize potential question order bias.

DISCLAIMER: This survey was paid for and authorized solely by The Lindholm Company, LLC, and Lindholm Research, LLC. This survey was not paid for or authorized by any campaign committee. Lindholm Company, LLC, has made in-kind contributions to the Farr for Commissioner Committee. Pat Farr has worked for The Lindholm Company, LLC, during the past calendar year. Pat Farr has no ownership interest in either company.