Posts tagged ‘OR Cong. Dist. 4 Feb. ’09 Survey’

OREGON 4TH DISTRICT REP. PRIMARY: BALLOT PREFERENCE KEY SEGMENTS

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Geography is the biggest determinant of support. All candidates are from Lane County. The Eugene TV market includes much of the 4th Congressional District. This explains Rick Dancer’s strength around the district. Sid Leiken is Mayor of Springfield in Lane County and his  family is from the Roseburg area in Douglas County.

Gender is a secondary factor. It is interesting that there is a gender divide between Dancer (favored by women) and Leiken (favored by men) in the southern part of the district (Douglas and Josephine counties).

This graphic was constructed using CHAID (CHi-squared Automatic Interdaction Detection) methodology.

Definitions of regions: Lane Metro (City of Eugene, City of Springfield, and surrounding urbanized area), Lane Rural (Lane County outside of Lane Metro area), Coast (Coos and Curry counties), North (Benton and Linn counties), and South (Douglas and Josephine counties). Note that parts of Benton and Josephine counties are in neighboring congressional districts. Only the 4th District portions were surveyed.

OREGON 4TH DISTRICT REP. PRIMARY: BALLOT PREFERENCE BY VOTE PROPENSITY

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The support for Rick Dancer is constant between high likelihood Primary voters and low likelihood Primary voters.

As would be expected, Sid Leiken and Jack Roberts, who have both held political office, are stronger among those who more likely to vote.

The margin of error for the high likelihood Primary voter subsample is 6%. The margin of error for the low likelihood subsample is 8%.

Question: If the Republican Primary election for Congress were held today, would you vote for: Rick Dancer, Sid Leiken, or Jack Roberts [ROTATE NAMES]?

The survey consists of 400 telephone interviews of likely 2010 Republican Primary voters conducted March 1 through 3, 2009. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%. A model of the sample population was used to insure a representative sample.

Lindholm Research is not currently (as of posting) employed by any candidate for the 4th Congressional District. This survey was conducted as part of a long term research project and was completely funded by Lindholm Research.

Reports from other elements of this and other research projects will be made from time to time on the blog.

For other information from this survey, please see these:
Overall ballot: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=84
Name ID: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=156

OREGON 4TH DISTRICT REP. PRIMARY: BALLOT PREFERENCE BY REGION

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Geography has a strong influence on ballot support.  As is typical, the patterns for the individual candidates mix to determine the relative support by region. Rick Dancer, is strongest in the Eugene television market. Sid Leiken is strongest in Lane County and Douglas County. Jack Roberts, who has run statewide many times, has the same strength throughout the district.

Question: If the Republican Primary election for Congress were held today, would you vote for: Rick Dancer, Sid Leiken, or Jack Roberts [ROTATE NAMES]?

The survey consists of 400 telephone interviews of likely 2010 Republican Primary voters conducted March 1 through 3, 2009. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%. A model of the sample population was used to insure a representative sample.

Lindholm Research is not currently (as of posting) employed by any candidate for the 4th Congressional District. This survey was conducted as part of a long term research project and was completely funded by Lindholm Research.

Reports from other elements of this and other research projects will be made from time to time on the blog.

For other information from this survey, please see these:
Overall ballot: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=84
Name ID: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=156

OREGON 4TH DISTRICT REP. PRIMARY: BALLOT PREFERENCE BY AGE

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Rick Dancer’s advantage is greatest among the voters aged 44 and younger. It’s interesting that Sid Leiken did better among those aged 18-34 and Jack Roberts did better among those aged 35-44.

Dancer still leads by a wide margin among those 45 and older, but the lead is much narrower. Sid Leiken and Jack Roberts are tied among those aged 45 and older.

Question: If the Republican Primary election for Congress were held today, would you vote for: Rick Dancer, Sid Leiken, or Jack Roberts [ROTATE NAMES]?

The survey consists of 400 telephone interviews of likely 2010 Republican Primary voters conducted March 1 through 3, 2009. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%. A model of the sample population was used to insure a representative sample.

Lindholm Research is not currently (as of posting) employed by any candidate for the 4th Congressional District. This survey was conducted as part of a long term research project and was completely funded by Lindholm Research.

Reports from other elements of this and other research projects will be made from time to time on the blog.

For other information from this survey, please see these:
Overall ballot: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=84
Name ID: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=156

OREGON 4TH DISTRICT REP. PRIMARY: BALLOT PREFERENCE BY GENDER

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Dancer leads by a wide margin among both genders. However, Dancer’s lead among women is wider by a statistically significant margin.

Question: If the Republican Primary election for Congress were held today, would you vote for: Rick Dancer, Sid Leiken, or Jack Roberts [ROTATE NAMES]?

The survey consists of 400 telephone interviews of likely 2010 Republican Primary voters conducted March 1 through 3, 2009. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%. A model of the sample population was used to insure a representative sample.

The margin of error at the subsample medians for genders is 7%.

Lindholm Research is not currently (as of posting) employed by any candidate for the 4th Congressional District. This survey was conducted as part of a long term research project and was completely funded by Lindholm Research.

Reports from other elements of this and other research projects will be made from time to time on the blog.

For other information from this survey, please see these:
Overall ballot: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=84
Name ID: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=156

OREGON 4TH DISTRICT REPUBLICAN PRIMARY NAME ID RATINGS

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This post expands on an earlier post that contained the ballot contest results.

The name ID ratings give an idea of general strength in the district. This question shows how far ahead Rick Dancer currently is among the leading Republicans. A greater percentage of likely Republican Primary voters have a favorable rating of him than recognize the names of anyone else listed. Former statewide officeholder Jack Roberts and Springfield Mayor Sid Leiken are in a statistical tie trailing significantly.

It is reasonable to expect Dancer’s Name ID ratings to decline somewhat during 2009, though probably not enough to offset the current gap. The Leiken and Roberts Name ID ratings, on the other hand, should stay constant. This forecast assumes no significant changes in media profile, etc.

The exact question asked on the survey was: “Now, I am going to read the names of some people. Please tell me if you have heard of each. [If heard of then ask] Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of ___.” The order of names was randomly varied for each respondent. No occupation or other description was included.

The survey consists of 400 telephone interviews of likely 2010 Republican Primary voters conducted March 1 through 3, 2009. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%. A model of the sample population was used to insure a representative sample.

The survey was conducted as part of a long term research project and was completely funded by Lindholm Research. No candidate for the 4th District is a client of Lindholm Research as of this writing.

Please refer to: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=84 for associated ballot contest results.

OREGON 4TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT REPUBLICAN PRIMARY SURVEY

The 2010 election is a long way off, but rumors abound that Congressman Peter DeFazio will run for Governor. He has not yet announced his plans. If Mr. DeFazio does run for Governor, his seat will become open for the first time in 24 years. Republicans have traditionally done better in the 4th than in Oregon as a whole.

Our firm decided to test leading 4th District Republicans, current Springfield Mayor Sid Leiken, former Labor Commissioner Jack Roberts, and former News Anchor Rick Dancer, in a hypothetical primary match. None have yet announced for the seat.

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If the election were held today, Dancer would lead with 43%, Roberts would get 10% and Leiken would get 9%. Those without an opinion stand at 38%.

It is important to remember that this survey is very early and is only a snapshot in time. No seat is yet open, no campaign has yet started, and the May 18 Primary Election Day is more than 400 days away.

A reasonable conclusion is that Dancer starts with a big lead due to name ID, but that he is far from sewing up the race since nearly 40% of likely voters are undecided.

The survey consists of 400 telephone interviews of likely 2010 Republican Primary voters conducted March 1 through 3, 2009. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%. A model of the sample population was used to insure a representative sample.

Lindholm Research is not currently (as of posting) employed by any candidate for the 4th Congressional District. This survey was conducted as part of a long term research project and was completely funded by Lindholm Research.

Reports from other elements of this and other research projects will be made from time to time on the blog.