Posts tagged ‘Oregon 2008 Election’

Oregon Republican Optimal Brand Performance 1994 to 2008

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This graphic presents the upper bound of down balllot Republican candidate vote by year from 1994 through 2008.

Down ballot contests (Secretary of State, State Treasurer, Attorney General, and Labor Commissioner) are useful because they are “low information contests.” They do not have the multi-million dollar budgets and large volunteer organizations that allow a candidate to separate himself or herself from the party label.

Source of data: Oregon Secretary of State

Oregon 2008 Pct. Difference Between Dancer (SOS) and Alley (OST) by County

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This map shows how much Dancer did in the Eugene television market (DMA) and how much better Alley did in the Tri-County Area.

The more deeply shaded the green the better Rick Dancer did than Allen Alley. The lighter the shade, the better Alley did than Dancer. Statewide, their vote total were approximately equal.

The most important lesson from this map is that Republican support, and, inversely, Democratic support, during the 2008 election was not monolithic and some factors could lead to dramatic improvements.

Source of data: Oregon Secretary of State.

Oregon 2008 State Treasurer Contest by County

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This post continues a series of posts on the 2008 “low information” partisan contest results in Oregon: Secretary of State and State Treasurer. “Low information” contests are those where, in general, the voter only has minimal “cues” about the candidates. These “cues” include political party and gender.

The last post showed how Rick Dancer (R) was able to break out of the mold in the Eugene TV market.

On the other hand, the Allen Alley (R) vs. Ben Westlund (D) contest was much more commonplace. Throughout the state, both candidates did just as one would expect, given their partisan labels.

Source of data: Oregon Secretary of State.

Oregon 2008 Secretary of State Contest by County

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This post begins a series of posts on the 2008 “low information” partisan contest results in Oregon: Secretary of State and State Treasurer. “Low information” contests are those where, in general, the voter only has minimal “cues” about the candidates. These “cues” include political party and gender.

Occasionally, a candidate is able to break out of those limitations. Rick Dancer (R) was for many years the news anchor on KEZI TV in Eugene. The Eugene market (DMA) covers Benton, Coos, Douglas, and Lane counties.

Consequently, the Kate Brown (D) v. Rick Dancer (R) contest results exhibited an unusual political geography. That Brown won the Democratic Portland area and Dancer won the Republican rural areas was expected. However, Dancer also won Democratic Lane County. Normally, a Republican win there heralds a statewide victory, such as Roberts in 1994 and Smith in 2002, but, in this case Dancer was defeated. The Democratic margin from the Portland area was just too great.

Source of data: Oregon Secretary of State.

OREGON SMITH 2008 – MCCAIN 2008 PERFORMANCE BY COUNTY

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This map shows the difference by Oregon county in two-party vote percentage between U. S. Senator Gordon Smith and Presidential nominee John McCain in 2008. The deeper the green, the better Smith did as compared to McCain in 2008.

Source of data: Oregon Secretary of State.

OREGON BUSH 2004 – MCCAIN 2008 PERFORMANCE BY COUNTY

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This map shows the difference by Oregon county in two-party vote percentage between George W. Bush in 2004 and John McCain in 2008. The deeper the green, the better Bush did in 2004 compared to McCain in 2008.

Source of data: Oregon Secretary of State.

OREGON 2008 U. S. SENATE CONTEST RESULTS BY COUNTY

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This map shows the relative support for Senator Gordon Smith and challenger Jeff Merkley in the 2008 Presidential contest by Oregon county.

Note that this map generally follows the 2008 partisan registration differences.

Source of data: Oregon Secretary of State.

OREGON 2008 PRESIDENTIAL CONTEST RESULTS BY COUNTY

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This map shows the relative support for Barack Obama and John McCain in the 2008 Presidential contest by Oregon county.

Note that this map generally follows the 2008 partisan registration difference.

Source of data: Oregon Secretary of State.

OREGON PARTISAN REGISTRATION SHIFT: 2004 TO 2008

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This map shows the counties with the greatest Republican stability. The lighter the green the greater the drop in net Republican registration percentage.

Comparing this map to the registration by county map, the Republicans generally lost the most ground in the more Democratic and more swing areas of the state.

The net Republican registration percentage equals the percentage of voters registered as Republicans minus the percentage of voters registered as Democrats.

Source of data: Oregon Secretary of State.

OREGON PARTISAN REGISTRATION BY COUNTY, NOV. 2008

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This map shows the relative registration differences by Oregon county. Blue is more Democratic and red is more Republican.

A future map will show the change between 2004 and 2008 by county.

The registration difference equals the percentage of voters registered as Republicans minus the percentage of voters registered as Democrats.

Source of data: Oregon Secretary of State.