Posts tagged ‘Oregon 2014 General’

Wave Elections and Oregon Republicans

The wave missed Oregon, again.

The past three wave elections, 2002,2010, and 2014 were all great for national Republicans. None was a particularly great for Oregon Republicans. Why is that?

Sure, in 2002, Gordon Smith turned what had been an expected close race into a landslide victory and the Republicans held the state legislature despite the huge reshuffling, some might say gerrymander, of districts by the Democratic Secretary of State after the 2000 Census. However, the Republicans failed to win  the Governor’s Mansion.

The open seats in 2002 and 2010 were there for the taking, some might say. Why weren’t they?

The most obvious, and probably simplest, reason is that the Republican nominees in these years just weren’t ready.

Kevin Mannix, a social conservative, was simply too conservative for the Oregon electorate. Heck, he was too conservative for the Republican Primary electorate. Jack Roberts and Ron Saxton, both to his left on a wide range of issues, together won a landslide majority – had they not split the vote.

Chris Dudley simply had no resume. Oregonians haven’t elected an inexperienced Governor since 1938. And that year Charles Sprague was the editor of the Statesman-Journal.

Oregon Republicans should nominate their best and brightest, not their afterthoughts, for Governor. You never know what might happen.

Turning back to 1938 might give us some inspiration … the Eugene Register-Guard endorsed Sprague in the Primary and staunchly backed him through the year. However, their endorsement in the Primary was something less than optimistic. They liked Sprague well enough, but they wrote that he didn’t stand much of a chance against popular Democratic Governor Charles Martin. Not only was Martin popular, but Democrats had been winning wider and wider margins nearly everywhere in the country since 1928. A funny thing happened, though. First, the Democrats didn’t re-nominate Martin, Instead, they chose a very liberal nominee. Second, 1938 turned out to be, in relative terms, a wave election for Republicans. They made major strides nationally in 1938. These two in combination made Sprague Governor.

Oregon Gubernatorial Results by Eugene Ward

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Kitzhaber defeated Richardson by an wide margin in every part of the city. The margin in south Eugene (Wards 1, 2, and 3) is especially pronounced. The margins in wards 5 and 6 were comparatively close.

SOURCE: Oregon Secretary of State; Lane County Elections.

METHODOLOGY: The graphic covers the Oregon statewide result, the overall Eugene result, and then the city’s eight wards.

Oregon Gubernatorial Results by Lane County Region

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Kitzhaber defeated Richardson in every part of the county. South Eugene stands out by its especially wide margin. The rural Lane County, and the East Lane and West Lane districts in particular, stand out by their narrow margins.

SOURCE: Oregon Secretary of State; Lane County Elections.

METHODOLOGY: The graphic covers the Oregon statewide result, the overall Lane result and then the results by region.

Oregon Senate Results by Eugene Ward

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Merkley defeated Wehby by an overwhelming margin in every part of the city. The margin in south Eugene (Wards 1, 2, and 3) is especially pronounced.

SOURCE: Oregon Secretary of State; Lane County Elections.

METHODOLOGY: The graphic covers the Oregon statewide result, the overall Eugene result, and then the city’s eight wards.

Oregon Senate Results by Lane County Region

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Merkley defeated Wehby in every part of the county. South Eugene stands out by its especially wide margin.

SOURCE: Oregon Secretary of State; Lane County Elections.

METHODOLOGY: The graphic covers the Oregon statewide result, the overall Lane result and then the results by region.

How Measure 90 (Top Two Primary) Fared in Lane County

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This was the one measure (see previous posts) where the entire county voted practically in unison. It was also the one measure where both major political parties joined in opposition.

SOURCE: Oregon Secretary of State; Lane County Elections.

METHODOLOGY: The graphic covers the Oregon statewide result, the Lane countywide result and the overall results for Eugene, Springfield, and Rural Lane County (the portion of the county that is neither in Eugene nor in Springfield). Next, are the five county commissioner districts. Finally, the overall Eugene result is repeated, for ease of comparison, followed by the city’s eight wards.

REFERENCE
Lane County Commissioner Districts
http://www.lanecounty.org/Departments/BCC/Pages/Districts.aspx

Eugene City Council Wards
http://www.eugene-or.gov/index.aspx?NID=532

How Measure 86 (College Fund) Fared in Lane County

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The pattern is pretty clear. South Eugene (the county commission district and wards 1, 2, and 3) voted one way and the rest of the county voted another.

SOURCE: Oregon Secretary of State; Lane County Elections.

METHODOLOGY: The graphic covers the Oregon statewide result, the Lane countywide result and the overall results for Eugene, Springfield, and Rural Lane County (the portion of the county that is neither in Eugene nor in Springfield). Next, are the five county commissioner districts. Finally, the overall Eugene result is repeated, for ease of comparison, followed by the city’s eight wards.

REFERENCE
Lane County Commissioner Districts
http://www.lanecounty.org/Departments/BCC/Pages/Districts.aspx

Eugene City Council Wards
http://www.eugene-or.gov/index.aspx?NID=532

How Measure 87 (Judicial Employment) Fared in Lane County

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The pattern is pretty clear. South Eugene (the county commission district and wards 1, 2, and 3) voted one way and the rest of the county voted another.

SOURCE: Oregon Secretary of State; Lane County Elections.

METHODOLOGY: The graphic covers the Oregon statewide result, the Lane countywide result and the overall results for Eugene, Springfield, and Rural Lane County (the portion of the county that is neither in Eugene nor in Springfield). Next, are the five county commissioner districts. Finally, the overall Eugene result is repeated, for ease of comparison, followed by the city’s eight wards.

REFERENCE
Lane County Commissioner Districts
http://www.lanecounty.org/Departments/BCC/Pages/Districts.aspx

Eugene City Council Wards
http://www.eugene-or.gov/index.aspx?NID=532

How Measure 88 (Driver Card) Fared in Lane County

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The pattern is pretty clear. South Eugene (the county commission district and wards 1, 2, and 3) voted one way and the rest of the county voted another.

SOURCE: Oregon Secretary of State; Lane County Elections.

METHODOLOGY: The graphic covers the Oregon statewide result, the Lane countywide result and the overall results for Eugene, Springfield, and Rural Lane County (the portion of the county that is neither in Eugene nor in Springfield). Next, are the five county commissioner districts. Finally, the overall Eugene result is repeated, for ease of comparison, followed by the city’s eight wards.

REFERENCE
Lane County Commissioner Districts
http://www.lanecounty.org/Departments/BCC/Pages/Districts.aspx

Eugene City Council Wards
http://www.eugene-or.gov/index.aspx?NID=532

How Measure 89 (State ERA) Fared in Lane County

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The pattern is pretty clear. South Eugene (the county commission district and wards 1, 2, and 3) voted one way and the rest of the county voted another.

What is interesting is how badly creamed the ACLU was in south Eugene.

SOURCE: Oregon Secretary of State; Lane County Elections.

METHODOLOGY: The graphic covers the Oregon statewide result, the Lane countywide result and the overall results for Eugene, Springfield, and Rural Lane County (the portion of the county that is neither in Eugene nor in Springfield). Next, are the five county commissioner districts. Finally, the overall Eugene result is repeated, for ease of comparison, followed by the city’s eight wards.

REFERENCE
Lane County Commissioner Districts
http://www.lanecounty.org/Departments/BCC/Pages/Districts.aspx

Eugene City Council Wards
http://www.eugene-or.gov/index.aspx?NID=532