Posts tagged ‘Oregon House ’02-’08 Analysis’

2002 Oregon House Seats by Party: Portland Metro

 2002-seat-control-tri-county-040809-01003

 

This post presents the situation in the Portland Metro after the 2002 November General in greater detail than the earlier statewide post could.

Republicans generally represented the suburbs and Democrats represented Portland and the coast. In the few cases where Democratic districts extended into the suburbs, a sizable portion of the population was in Portland, such as House District 33, a sizable portion of the population was in a core Democratic area (in this case northwest Portland).

An earlier post shows the situation after the 2008 General Election: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=487

After decades of steady Republican registration gains, the 2002 election voters were the most Republican electorate in Oregon since official records on partisan turnout began being kept in 1964:  http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=11; and probably the best since 1954. 2002 saw an even more Republican Oregon electorate than during the 1994 Republican national landslide.

2002 saw the high point of Republican victories during this decade. Since 2002 there has been a steady decline in the number of Republican districts.

In general, the partisan geography of Oregon’s house districts follow the national trends where urban areas are the most Democratic, rural areas are the most Republican, and suburban areas are in the middle.

The Democrats were in control of the 2001 redistricting process and many felt that fact alone would lead to big Democratic gains. The strong Republican registration and turnout more than counterbalanced the Democratic advantage in district boundaries.

Color coding of map:
Red: Republican representative
Blue: Democratic representative

Source of data: Oregon Secretary of State.

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2002 Oregon House Seats by Party: Willamette Valley

2002-seat-control-willamette-040809-01001

This post concentrates on districts in the Willamette Valley after the 2002 General Election.

Republicans represented all the areas outside the coast, the university towns of Corvallis and Eugene, and region neighboring Portland. Essentially, only the traditionally Democratic coast, universities, and Portland stayed out of Republican hands. Where Democratically-held districts extended into rural areas, such as House District 11, a sizable portion of the population was in a core Democratic area (in this case near the University of Oregon).

An earlier post shows the situation after the 2008 General Election: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=490

2002 saw the high point of Republican victories during this decade. Since 2002 there has been a steady decline in the number of Republican districts.

In general, the partisan geography of Oregon’s house districts follow the national trends where urban areas are the most Democratic, rural areas are the most Republican, and suburban areas are in the middle.

The Democrats were in control of the 2001 redistricting process and many felt that fact alone would lead to big Democratic gains. The strong Republican registration and turnout more than counterbalanced the Democratic advantage in district boundaries.

Color coding of map:
Red: Republican representative
Blue: Democratic representative

Source of data: Oregon Secretary of State.

2002 Oregon House Seats by Party: Statewide

2002-seat-control-statewide-040809-01006 

This post is the first in a series that looks back at the state house seats after the 2002 Oregon General Election. In many ways, 2002 was a high water mark for Oregon Republicans.

The map clearly shows the Republican districts in the moderate suburbs and semi-rural areas of Oregon.

An earlier post shows the situation after the 2008 General Election: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=484

As Republican hopes for 2010 increase, this map presents an estimate of the optimum Republican result if they use the same kind of approach they did in 2002.

2002 saw the high point of Republican victories during this decade. Since 2002 there has been a steady decline in the number of Republican districts.

In general, the partisan geography of Oregon’s house districts follow the national trends where urban areas are the most Democratic, rural areas are the most Republican, and suburban areas are in the middle.

The Democrats were in control of the 2001 redistricting process and many felt that fact alone would lead to big Democratic gains. The strong Republican registration and turnout more than counterbalanced the Democratic advantage in district boundaries.

Color coding of map:
Red: Republican representative
Blue: Democratic representative

Source of data: Oregon Secretary of State.

Oregon Net Republican State House Seats: Actual vs. Expected Due to Registration, 1964-2008

The net equals the number of house seats held by Republicans minus the number of house seats held by Democrats.

Generally, Republicans have consistently underperformed starting with the 2002 election.

This graphic was constructed using the output of a regression of the Republican margin in House seats on the Republican margin in statewide registration. The expected number of House seats for each election year was calculated by plugging the statewide registration margin into the equation.

Source of data: Oregon Secretary of State.