Posts tagged ‘Oregon Polls’

Measure 101 Key Demographics

As should be no surprise to anyone, the most important demographic split is by party. Democrats are clearly more supportive.
QUESTION: If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Measure 101: Approves temporary assessments to fund health care for low-income individuals and families, and to stabilize health insurance premiums. Temporary assessments on insurance companies, some hospitals, and other providers of insurance or health care coverage. Insurers may not increase rates on health insurance premiums by more than 1.5 percent as a result of these assessments.
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?
METHODOLOGY: 400 live telephone interviews of likely State of Oregon January Special Election voters statewide were conducted December 11-13, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%. Sampling was based on voter lists and used quotas to create a representative sample.
CHAID was used to create the tree diagram.
STATEMENT OF INTEREST: No company associated with this blog is working for either campaign. The Lindholm Company, LLC, owns all results.

Measure 101 Tracking Top Lines

Measure 101 is receiving support from slightly more than half of likely voters. Considering it is a tax measure, undecided voters are likely to be no voters on net. The high “Don’t Know,” more than a quarter of respondents, shows that the general public has very little information about this measure.
In comparison to the January 2010 election and measures 66 and 67 at this time in 2009 (http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=1646), Measure 101 is doing better among voters, but has a larger “Don’t Know.”
The bottom line is that voters haven’t settled on this measure and, given these data, it shouldn’t surprise anyone too much if either “Yes” or “No” won in the end.
QUESTION: If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Measure 101: Approves temporary assessments to fund health care for low-income individuals and families, and to stabilize health insurance premiums. Temporary assessments on insurance companies, some hospitals, and other providers of insurance or health care coverage. Insurers may not increase rates on health insurance premiums by more than 1.5 percent as a result of these assessments.
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?
METHODOLOGY: 400 live telephone interviews of likely State of Oregon January Special Election voters statewide were conducted December 11-13, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%. Sampling was based on voter lists and used quotas to create a representative sample.
STATEMENT OF INTEREST: No company associated with this blog is working for either campaign. The Lindholm Company, LLC, owns all results.

Legislative Supermajority to Declare Emergency Opposed

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Requiring a legislative supermajority to declare a law an emergency is opposed.

QUESTION: Do you support or oppose a ballot measure amending the Constitution: Requires two-thirds supermajority for legislature to declare emergency that accelerates law’s effective date?
IF SUPPORT/OPPOSE: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: Live telephone interviews of 400 likely Oregon general election voters were conducted September 14-16, 2015. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%. Quotas were established based on gender, age, party, and region. Totals may not equal 100% due to rounding.

$15/Hour Minimum Wage Gaining Ground – But Still No Majority Support

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A proposed $15/hour statewide minimum wage gained support between September and December, but is still losing.

QUESTION: Do you support or oppose a $15/hour statewide minimum wage in Oregon? IF SUPPORT/OPPOSE: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: Live telephone interviews of 400 likely Oregon general election voters were conducted September 14-16 and December 8-10, 2015. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%. Quotas were established based on gender, age, party, and region. Totals may not equal 100% due to rounding.

Statewide Gov. Brown Job Performance Trend

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Governor Brown’s job performance, both approval and disapproval, has been tracking in the mid 40s since she assumed the position.

QUESTION: How would you rate the job Governor Kate Brown is doing: excellent, good, fair, poor?

METHODOLOGY: Live telephone interviews of 400 likely Oregon general election voters were conducted July 13-15, September 14-16, and December 8-10, 2015. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%. Quotas were established based on gender, age, party, and region. Totals may not equal 100% due to rounding.

“Approve” = “Excellent” + “Good” / “Disapprove” = “Fair” + “Poor”

Statewide Brown Favorability Trend 2014-2015

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Kate Brown’s recognition, as well as favorable and unfavorable ratings quickly rose after she became governor, but has since remained largely unchanged.

QUESTION: I am going to read the names of some people. Please tell me whether you have heard of each. IF HEARD OF … Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Kate Brown? IF FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE: Is that strongly or somewhat?

METHODOLOGY: Live telephone interviews of 400 likely Oregon general election voters were conducted October 27-30, 2014 and February 9-11, July 13-15, September 14-16, and December 8-10, 2015. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%. Quotas were established based on gender, age, party, and region. Totals may not equal 100% due to rounding.

“Approve” = “Excellent” + “Good” / “Disapprove” = “Fair” + “Poor”

John Kitzhaber Favorability Trend 2014-2015

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John Kitzhaber’s favorable and unfavorable ratings dropped in 2015 after his ethical problems became clear. His ratings have stabilized since his resignation.

QUESTION: I am going to read the names of some people. Please tell me whether you have heard of each. IF HEARD OF … Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of John Kitzhaber? IF FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE: Is that strongly or somewhat?

METHODOLOGY: Live telephone interviews of 400 likely Oregon general election voters were conducted October 27-30, 2014 and February 9-11, July 13-15, September 14-16, and December 8-10, 2015. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%. Quotas were established based on gender, age, party, and region. Totals may not equal 100% due to rounding.

“Approve” = “Excellent” + “Good” / “Disapprove” = “Fair” + “Poor”

Increased Oregon Gun Restrictions a Toss Up

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Whereas the new gun background checks law is strongly supporting, adding increased gun restrictions to that new law is a toss up. The incredibly low “Don’t Know” percentage testifies to the entrenched viewpoints.

It is important to note that no specific restriction was mentioned in the wording of the question.

QUESTION: Do you support or oppose increasing restrictions on gun ownership?
IF SUPPORT/OPPOSE: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: Live telephone interviews of 400 likely Oregon general election voters were conducted September 14-16 and December 8-10, 2015. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%. Quotas were established based on gender, age, party, and region. Totals may not equal 100% due to rounding.

Oregon’s Gun Background Check Continues to Receive Overwhelming Support

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Statewide gun background checks continues to receive overwhelming support.

QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of requiring criminal background checks for private gun transfers?
IF APPROVE/DISAPPROVE: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: Live telephone interviews of 400 likely Oregon general election voters were conducted July 13-15 and December 8-10, 2015. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%. Quotas were established based on gender, age, party, and region. Totals may not equal 100% due to rounding.

Legalized Marijuana Laws Still Under 50% Approval

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QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of legalized marijuana in Oregon?
IF APPROVE/DISAPPROVE: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: Live telephone interviews of 400 likely Oregon general election voters were conducted September 14-16 and December 8-10, 2015. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%. Quotas were established based on gender, age, party, and region. Totals may not equal 100% due to rounding.