Posts tagged ‘Oregon Polls’

Oregon’s Gun Background Check Continues to Receive Overwhelming Support

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Statewide gun background checks continues to receive overwhelming support.

QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of requiring criminal background checks for private gun transfers?
IF APPROVE/DISAPPROVE: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: Live telephone interviews of 400 likely Oregon general election voters were conducted July 13-15 and December 8-10, 2015. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%. Quotas were established based on gender, age, party, and region. Totals may not equal 100% due to rounding.

Legalized Marijuana Laws Still Under 50% Approval

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QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of legalized marijuana in Oregon?
IF APPROVE/DISAPPROVE: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: Live telephone interviews of 400 likely Oregon general election voters were conducted September 14-16 and December 8-10, 2015. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%. Quotas were established based on gender, age, party, and region. Totals may not equal 100% due to rounding.

Renewables Measure Idea Receives Plurality Support

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A proposed renewables measure received support that is close to, but still below 50%.

QUESTION: Do you support or oppose a ballot measure increasing percentage of electricity that must come from renewable sources; requires eliminating coal-generated electricity?
IF SUPPORT/OPPOSE: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: Live telephone interviews of 400 likely Oregon general election voters were conducted September 14-16, 2015. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%. Quotas were established based on gender, age, party, and region. Totals may not equal 100% due to rounding.

Corporate Minimum Tax Receives Strong Support

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A proposed corporate minimum tax receives more than 60% support statewide.

QUESTION: Do you support or oppose a ballot measure increasing the corporate minimum tax when sales exceed $25 million; funds education, healthcare, senior services?
IF SUPPORT/OPPOSE: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: Live telephone interviews of 400 likely Oregon general election voters were conducted September 14-16, 2015. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%. Quotas were established based on gender, age, party, and region. Totals may not equal 100% due to rounding.

Perceptual Map: Secretary of State and Labor Commissioner Contests

This post presents a perceptual map comparing the Secretary of State vote and the Labor Commissioner vote.

There is now an advertisement attacking both of them jointly. This perceptual map implies that there is some difference between the two candidates.

These differences come both from that there is a much higher undecided vote in the Labor Commissioner race and because Starr is drawing a relatively less partisan typical voter than Buehler is.

Avakian’s point is on a nearly direct line from the “bulls-eye” origin as Brown is. However, his point is further out. This implies that Avakian is drawing on Brown voters only getting fewer of them.

QUESTIONS
1. If the election  for Secretary of State were held today, would you vote forBruce Alexander Knight, Libertarian Party, Kate Brown, Democrat and Working Families parties, Knute Buehler, Republican and Independent parties, Seth Woolley, Pacific Green Party, or Robert Wolfe, Progressive Party?

2. If the election  for Labor Commissioner were held today, would you vote for Bruce Starr or Brad Avakian?
IF STARR/AVAKIAN: Is that Strongly or Somewhat?

METHODOLOGY
This tracking survey series is comprised of five statewide Oregon surveys of 200 live telephone interviews of likely Oregon General Election voters conducted each of September 17-18, October 1-2, October 15-16, October 22-23, and October 29-30, 2012. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus five percent.

The graphic is constructed based on a Correspondence Analysis.

Perceptual Map: Measures 84 and 85

This post presents a perceptual map looking at the relationship between Measure 84 and Measure 85.

The correspondence between the “Yes” votes for one and the “No” votes for the other is striking. Voters see them as mirror images of one another.

QUESTIONS
Now, I would like to talk to you about some measures that will be on the November ballot.
If the election were held today on ________________, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?
1. Measure #84 Phases out existing inheritance taxes on large estates, and all taxes on intra-family property transfers
2. Measure #85 Amends Constitution: Allocates Corporate Income/Excise Tax “Kicker” Refund To Additionally Fund K Through 12 Public Education

METHODOLOGY
This tracking survey series is comprised of five statewide Oregon surveys of 200 live telephone interviews of likely Oregon General Election voters conducted each of September 17-18, October 1-2, October 15-16, October 22-23, and October 29-30, 2012. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus five percent.

The graphic is constructed based on a Correspondence Analysis.

Perceptual Map of Oregon’s Nine Ballot Measures

This post presents a perceptual map of Oregon’s nine November 2012 statewide ballot measures. This analysis is based on 1,000 interviews from tracking polls we’ve conducted in September and October.

First, the Perceptual Map of all three factors in one place:

The idea of a perceptual map is to see how the measures are associated. One way to think of it is that there are nine measures on the ballot and nine separate issues to decide. How people vote on these nine questions are driven by deeper, latent, issues. Please see the end of the post for the methodology.

The factors are driven by the weight in the measures. Since there are two casino measures, the casino issue takes up approximately double the weight.

There are three factors (three dimensions). Each one can be seen as distinguishing between a positive and a negative side. The first distinguishes the two Casino measures (82 and 83) from all the others. The second distinguishes the two constitutional measures (77 and 78) and the kicker measure (85) from the two casino measures (82 and 83) and the inheritance tax (84). The third distinguishes the transfer tax and inheritance tax (79 and 84) from the marijuana measure (80).

The nine measures can be grouped. The two casino measures (82 and 83) are always together and on their own. Relatively closer to them are the two business measures (79 on the Real Estate Transfer Tax and 84 on the inheritance tax). These two pairs generally stand apart from the other five measures. The two constitutional measures (77 and 78) are usually close together. The remaining three measures (80, 81, and 85) generally stay near the constitutional measures, but their relative positions change.

One interesting pattern is that the “pro-business” measures are grouped with the casino measures and the “progressive” measures are grouped with the constitutional measures.

The relative positions are probably easier to see when presented as a series of two-dimensional maps.

Factors 1 and 2

Factors 1 and 3

Factors 2 and 3

The share of the total variance: Factor 1: 23 percent – Factor 2: 19 percent – Factor 3 14 percent

These data are from a series of tracking polls we’ve of the Oregon General election. It’s part of a longer-term research project and not for any client. Each of the surveys is only 200 voters and has too much individual variation to be reported. Our results generally match results from all the other surveys.

QUESTIONS
Now, I would like to talk to you about some measures that will be on the November ballot.
If the election were held today on ________________, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?
DO NOT ROTATE QUESTIONS
1. Measure #77 Amends Constitution: Governor may declare “catastrophic disaster” (defined); requires legislative session; authorizes suspending specified constitutional spending restrictions
2. Measure #78 Amends Constitution: Changes constitutional language describing governmental system of separation of powers; makes grammatical and spelling changes
3. Measure #79 Amends Constitution: Prohibits real estate transfer taxes, fees, other assessments, except those operative on December 31, 2009
4. Measure #80 Allows personal marijuana, hemp cultivation/use without license; commission to regulate commercial marijuana cultivation/sale
5. Measure #81 Prohibits commercial non-tribal fishing with gillnets in Oregon “inland waters,” allows use of seine nets
6. Measure #82 Amends Constitution: Authorizes Establishment of Privately-Owned Casinos; Mandates Percentage Of Revenues Payable To Dedicated State Fund
7. Measure #83 Authorizes Privately-Owned Wood Village Casino; Mandates Percentage Of Revenues Payable To Dedicated State Fund
8. Measure #84 Phases out existing inheritance taxes on large estates, and all taxes on intra-family property transfers
9. Measure #85 Amends Constitution: Allocates Corporate Income/Excise Tax “Kicker” Refund To Additionally Fund K Through 12 Public Education

METHODOLOGY
This tracking survey series is comprised of five statewide Oregon surveys of 200 live telephone interviews of likely Oregon General Election voters conducted each of September 17-18, October 1-2, October 15-16, October 22-23, and October 29-30, 2012. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus five percent.

The total sample contains 1,000 interviews.

The perceptual map was constructed using factor analysis. Technically, it a Principal Components Analysis was used with unrotated factors. Factors were deemed significant if their eigenvalue was greater than one.

This methodology was used because it involved the least number of assumptions and, in that sense, was the “purest” way to obtain the results. There are more sophisticated methods that would arguably be more illuminating. The objective here was lack of bias and transparency.