Posts tagged ‘2008 Oregon Democratic Primary’

2008 Oregon Democratic Primary: New Voter Voting Share by County

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The newly registered voters who voted in the May, 2008 Oregon Democratic Primary were concentrated in the Willamette Valley. Benton, Multnomah, and Washington counties had the highest relative concentrations.

This map parallels the long-term partisan registration change (for a map of the changes by House District see: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=499).

This post is part of a series on the 2008 Oregon Democratic Primary.

This map represents the relative share of the total number of 2008 Oregon Democratic Primary voters who were New Voters (see below for definition). The map ranges from red to blue. Red is a higher percentage and blue is a lower percentage.

The four categories of 2008 Oregon Democratic Primary voters are:
Persistent: Long-term Democrats who voted in the 2004 and/or 2006 primary and voted in the 2008 Primary (55% of the total voters).
Non-Persistent: Long-term Democrats who voted in neither the 2004 nor the 2006 primary and voted in the 2008 Primary (29% of the total voters).
Switchers: Long-term voters who switched from another registration category to vote as Democrats in the 2008 Primary (9% of the total voters).
New Voters: Voters who registered after February 1, 2008 and voted in the 2008 Primary (8% of the total voters).

Sources of data: Oregon Secretary of State and Labels and Lists.

2008 Oregon Democratic Primary: Party Switcher Voting Share by County

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This post is part of a series on the 2008 Oregon Democratic Primary.

This map represents the relative share of the total number of 2008 Oregon Democratic Primary voters who were Party Switchers (see below for definition). The map ranges from red to blue. Red is a higher percentage and blue is a lower percentage.

Party switchers formed a much higher percentage of the Democratic Primary votes in the western part of the state. Switchers were also a larger share in the counties with significant shares of high-tech industries in their local economies, such as Benton and Washington.

The four categories of 2008 Oregon Democratic Primary voters are:
Persistent: Long-term Democrats who voted in the 2004 and/or 2006 primary and voted in the 2008 Primary (55% of the total voters).
Non-Persistent: Long-term Democrats who voted in neither the 2004 nor the 2006 primary and voted in the 2008 Primary (29% of the total voters).
Switchers: Long-term voters who switched from another registration category to vote as Democrats in the 2008 Primary (9% of the total voters).
New Voters: Voters who registered after February 1, 2008 and voted in the 2008 Primary (8% of the total voters).

Sources of data: Oregon Secretary of State and Labels and Lists.

2008 Oregon Democratic Primary: Non-Persistent Democratic Voting Share by County

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This post is part of a series on the 2008 Oregon Democratic Primary.

This map represents the relative share of the total number of 2008 Oregon Democratic Primary voters who were Non-Persistent Democrats (see below for definition). The map ranges from red to blue. Red is a higher percentage and blue is a lower percentage.
The four categories of 2008 Oregon Democratic Primary voters are:
Persistent: Long-term Democrats who voted in the 2004 and/or 2006 primary and voted in the 2008 Primary (55% of the total voters).
Non-Persistent: Long-term Democrats who voted in neither the 2004 nor the 2006 primary and voted in the 2008 Primary (29% of the total voters).
Switchers: Long-term voters who switched from another registration category to vote as Democrats in the 2008 Primary (9% of the total voters).
New Voters: Voters who registered after February 1, 2008 and voted in the 2008 Primary (8% of the total voters).

Sources of data: Oregon Secretary of State and Labels and Lists.

2008 Oregon Democratic Primary: Persistent Democratic Voting Share by County

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This post is part of a series on the 2008 Oregon Democratic Primary.

This map represents the relative share of the total number of 2008 Oregon Democratic Primary voters who were Persistent Democrats (see below for definition). The map ranges from red to blue. Red is a higher percentage and blue is a lower percentage.

An interesting way to read this map, however, is to reverse it. In that way, the blue maps the share of the voters who were new voters. The typical Democratic Primary voters were to be found in Eastern Oregon and, less so, along the Coast. The newer voters were in the more liberal areas and in the fastest growing cities.

The four categories of 2008 Oregon Democratic Primary voters are:
Persistent: Long-term Democrats who voted in the 2004 and/or 2006 primary and voted in the 2008 Primary (55% of the total voters).
Non-Persistent: Long-term Democrats who voted in neither the 2004 nor the 2006 primary and voted in the 2008 Primary (29% of the total voters).
Switchers: Long-term voters who switched from another registration category to vote as Democrats in the 2008 Primary (9% of the total voters).
New Voters: Voters who registered after February 1, 2008 and voted in the 2008 Primary (8% of the total voters).

Sources of data: Oregon Secretary of State and Labels and Lists.

Ballot Return Demographics for 2008 Oregon Democratic Primary: Voter Category

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These results parallel the vote propensity findings presented earlier. Persistent Democrats are more likely to vote earlier. New Voters are most likely to vote later. The Party Switchers, since many have higher vote propensities than the Non-Persistent Democrats, are the second most likely to vote earlier. Non-Persistent Democrats are the third most likely group to vote earlier.

Definitions of Voter Categories: Persistent: Democrat who voted in one or more of the previous two primaries (2004/2006). Non-Persistent: Democrats who did not vote in either of the previous two primaries. Switchers: Those who re-registered as Democrats from another registration category (Republican, Non Affiliated Voter, etc.). New Voters: Those who registered to vote in the three months prior to the election.

This result, specifically, is a preliminary result in a larger research project examining how the new voters in the 2008 Oregon Democratic Primary behaved.

Sources: Oregon Secretary of State and Labels and Lists of Bellevue, Washington.

Ballot Return Demographics for 2008 Oregon Democratic Primary: Vote Propensity

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Those who have voted more often in the past are more likely to vote earlier in this vote-by-mail election.

Vote propensity is number of the previous four Primary and General Elections that the person voted in (2004 Primary and General and 2006 Primary and General).

Sources: Oregon Secretary of State and Labels and Lists of Bellevue, Washington.

Ballot Return Demographics for 2008 Oregon Democratic Primary: Geography

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Voters from the 2nd Congressional District (Eastern and Southern Oregon) tended to return ballots faster than those from the 3rd Congressional District (Portland). In general, rural areas have historically tended to return their ballot earlier. This is probably due to a combination of factors including average distance from the county seat  and average age of the voting population.

Ballot returns from the other congressional districts were between these two extremes.

Sources: Oregon Secretary of State and Labels and Lists of Bellevue, Washington.

Ballot Return Demographics for 2008 Oregon Democratic Primary: Household Party Mix

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This graphic shows the ballot return date for 2008 Oregon Democratic Primary voters based on the household party mix. In other words, since we know at least one was a Democrat, what were the other parties, if any, in the household? The options are no other party (pure Democrat) and Republican or Independent (Other party or Non-affiliated voter) or both other parties.

What one finds is that households that include Independent voters were relatively slower turning in their ballots. “Democratic” and “Democratic and Republican” households That Independents are slower to turn in their ballots has been well documented, what is interesting here is that there is an apparent household effect. This probably has something to do with the other, social, factors that lead to people becoming independent voters.

Sources: Oregon Secretary of State and Labels and Lists of Bellevue, Washington.

Ballot Return Demographics for 2008 Oregon Democratic Primary: Age

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This pattern follows the pattern of nearly all previous elections. Older voters vote earlier. In this way, the 2008 Oregon Democratic Primary was not exceptional.

Please note that, as earlier, this graphic shows the share of eventual voters whose ballots have arrived at the elections office by a certain date.

Sources: Oregon Secretary of State and Labels and Lists of Bellevue, Washington.

Ballot Return Demographics for 2008 Oregon Democratic Primary: Gender

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This post initiates a series analyzing voter turnout by ballot return dates by demography for the 2008 Oregon Democratic Primary. I am completing a research project looking at the behavior and impact of new voters in that election and will be sharing some of the research results during the coming weeks.

This graphic shows the share of eventual voters who have voted by date. It answers the question of how quickly the voters in different categories return ballots.

The first result in this series is that voting men and women turned in their ballots at approximately the same rate. This indicates there was no gender effect from Hilary Clinton being on the ballot or other factors.

Sources: Oregon Secretary of State and Labels and Lists of Bellevue, Washington.

For those of you interested in learning more about it, The Early Voting Information Center at Reed College: http://www.earlyvoting.net/blog. Researchers also include professors from the University of Oregon, the University of Michigan, and MIT.  A recent research paper that is a good approachable summary of the work to date is: Michael J. Hanmer and Michael W. Traugott, (2004) “The Impact of Voting by Mail on Voter Behavior,” American Politics Research, Vol. 32, No. 4, 375-405.